start	end	text
5670	6310	What?
8530	12190	Oh, come on. That's okay.
12670	17470	Okay, what I'd like to do is I'd like to get the slackers up here, up into this portion of the
19990	20630	chairs.
20930	25070	I have got some t-shirts that I'm going to give away. We're going to do a Q&A session and hopefully we're going to have a little bit
25070	28570	of fun with this. Everybody looks bored. It's not going to be as bad as you think.
36320	38500	Here is the mandatory
39720	42800	personal anecdote. Okay, I'm in New Jersey right now.
43360	43960	Yeah.
46700	50580	So I'm on the plane, right? And we're getting ready to take off.
50640	54200	And I've got two guys behind me.
54200	57860	And I've got the cute girl next to him. And there's a guy over here that looks kind of goofy.
58000	62320	And there's another girl next to him, right? So we're waiting to take off and I'm thinking
62800	66800	these two don't know each other. These two don't know each other. We're headed to Vegas.
66800	69000	There's all kinds of possibilities here, right?
69880	73800	Then the dumb guy gets up, taps the girl on the shoulder and he says,
73800	77980	Hey, would you mind moving over so that I can sit with my friend?
78920	82560	That's when I knew that I had computer geeks behind me.
85400	86360	True story.
86360	90120	And somewhere I was hoping that there would be a guy here whose face would turn really red.
91960	94560	Anyway, so they're behind me and they start talking geek speak.
94560	97180	They start talking about XML and security and all this stuff,
97180	101180	which past a certain point you get kind of tired of it.
102520	105780	Then I got a surprise. These guys are all in their 20s. They're clean cut.
105780	109720	They seem really driven by what they're doing, which is typical for DEF CON, I think.
111500	115320	And then they're going through resumes and the one guy looks at a resume and he says,
115320	118680	This guy's got a lot of technical knowledge. And the other guy looks and he says,
118680	122420	Yeah, I interviewed him, but he doesn't have any business knowledge and he doesn't know
122420	125580	what is of value and what is not. And that surprised me.
126280	130260	That's what I look for now. I look for what things have value. I think we're in the midst of a change
130260	135080	in the industry where we focus on what is of value
135080	138280	rather than the mechanics of building things.
138640	142600	So that's what our focus is going to be. It's going to be on keeping people employed through the industry
142600	146300	because I personally don't believe that the shakeout is over yet.
148620	150480	This is my other personal anecdote,
150480	154620	which I decided was too egotistical. Why should you listen to me?
154660	157180	I don't have a black t-shirt on, so maybe you shouldn't.
159360	163300	What we're going to do, we're going to go through and we're going to hit three basic areas.
163300	166500	We're going to lay out a couple simple business concepts, which are very
166500	170140	common in MBA programs. They're common in
170140	174740	large companies. We're going to lay those theories out.
174740	177780	We're going to drive them down into a technical implementation
178340	181640	that gives us concrete results that we can make decisions from.
181920	185840	And then towards the end of the presentation, what I'm going to do is I'm going to throw out some strategic concepts
185840	188420	to you, which are going to be
190040	194000	a little bit radical, I think. We'll test it. We'll see. This is DEF CON. Maybe it won't be radical.
194000	197800	Maybe nobody will care. But there's some ideas that I think that people can play around with and they
197800	201680	might be able to turn them into additional concrete implementations
202320	204020	in companies, things like that.
205480	207720	Okay. Everybody watches the news, right?
207720	212040	I took this a month ago and this is already out of date because there's already like a dozen more I could add on here.
212200	215340	Layouts are still going on. People are still being laid off left and right.
215880	219820	The crash is not over yet. Historically, industrial
219820	223340	revolutions like this have seen a shakeout of approximately
223340	227960	30% of the peak population of the leading technologies.
227960	231800	What we've seen in IT right now is about a 15% shakeout. So personally, I think
231800	235820	that you're looking at another wave that will be equivalent to
235820	239780	the last four years. How many people here have been laid off or out of work in the last
239780	243900	five years? Yeah. And you know what? For every hand
243900	248360	that's here, there's a guy that isn't here because he's not in the industry anymore. He got washed out.
248360	251800	My goal here is to give people a little bit of knowledge
252360	255960	so that they can make decisions that will keep them employed or
256360	259840	it will let them make a decision to leave the industry now before they waste a lot
259840	263820	of time on it. So either way, if that's the outcome
263820	265480	here, I'm happy with either outcome.
267900	271860	The time and effort that you put out to learn things is finite. If you learn something that has
271860	275880	no value, you're fucked. Right? Your time is gone. You can't
275880	278380	get it back. People are not going to pay you for it.
279940	283760	Now, the skew here in DEF CON is a little bit different because you guys are in the security
283760	287840	industry and I think you've got a substantially better chance
287840	290600	of staying employed over the next four or five years than business.
290600	293860	If you're in business software, I think you're going to be in trouble.
295720	299800	IT market changes constantly, everybody knows that. What we're going to look at is we're going to try and focus
299800	302680	on what kind of skills that we should be learning to stay employed.
305380	307260	How many people know what a meme is?
309080	311720	That's good. The first question I got asked when I walked in was, what is a meme?
311720	315560	And I thought, oh my god, I should have put that up. A meme is an idea
316300	319580	it's a mind virus that passes through a population.
319960	323540	And typically, if you want to be completely theoretical about it,
323540	327640	it starts with a single person, that person talks to two more, those two people talk to
327640	331520	four people, four people talk to eight, so it's typically an exponential function.
332880	335560	And it looks like an exponential function, a
336260	340440	hyperbolic curve, until it reaches about the 50% mark of reaching
340440	343100	the entire population and then, because you're getting people that already know it,
343100	346740	you're talking to people, oh yeah, I already know that, I already know that, it starts tapering down and you get
347340	349720	a drop-off as you reach market saturation.
350580	354760	And that's typically known as an S-curve. How many people know the concept of an S-curve?
356120	359460	Okay, that's good. Here's a picture of it.
359580	363360	I start with a single point, it goes through a rapid run-up,
363360	366400	it reaches the 50% point, and then I reach market saturation.
368600	371200	This is a fundamental concept that you can apply in a lot
371200	376040	of different situations, a surprising number. And it's simple, it's a simple concept.
377940	379620	Ultimately, this is our goal.
380120	383220	We want to eliminate getting into new
383220	387280	technologies when they're first introduced because there's a very high failure rate. I don't want to be
387280	391540	here. I don't want to be in the high-risk area. I don't want to be in the low-reward
391540	395260	area because that's a technology on its way out and I can't make any money in it.
395680	397820	What I want to do is I want to identify
397820	401900	an area as it's ramping up, but I want to get it before
401900	405900	it's at the 50% mark so I can make the most money off of it. Right here,
406480	409900	I can make a decision that, yeah, this is probably going to stick around, this is probably going to
409900	413980	be a viable technology, and I can ride the highest part
413980	417720	of the wave off, which is the optimum profit point because other people are not paying
417720	422040	attention and you're already in the market to learn these things. You're already in the market to sell your services
422040	425660	in this. This is a simple concept. Does everybody grasp this?
425660	429140	Can I get a show of hands where everybody thinks that this is... do you think it's important?
436400	438540	The reason I care about an S-curve is it
438540	441220	has predictive power into the future.
442300	446360	How many people here know calculus? Oh, there you go.
446360	450540	So you know this already. As this is ramping up, my rate of
450540	454700	change is constantly increasing and I can measure that by doing empirical analysis
454700	458460	on certain things. And I can see that the saturation is...
458460	462140	or the propagation of the mean is rising.
462180	466000	Once it reaches the 50% mark, where roughly I have 50% of the people know
466460	470260	the mean's already propagated, it changes, I reach the inflection point
470260	474420	and the rate of change begins decreasing. So if I can measure the rate of change and see that it's
474420	478060	increasing, I know that I'm still on the pre-50% mark.
478120	482520	Afterwards, I know that I'm after the 50% mark. So this is really what we look for.
482520	484160	We look for a rate of change.
486240	488900	Okay, peak oil. How many know about peak oil?
490040	492120	Oh my god, now I'm
492120	492940	stunned.
495460	499940	Just as a quick overview, peak oil is the idea that
499940	503940	oil resources are finite in the world. And there was a guy named Hubert
503940	507540	which, in the 50s, he did basically an S-curve analysis
508140	511900	at the rate at which they were finding oil drilling holes, you know, that they were making
511900	516600	discoveries. And he graphed it down on a chart and he was able to see that in the United States
516600	519760	that peak oil production would occur around 1970. And he
519760	523520	was right within about a year. And he predicted it 15 to 20 years before it happened.
523520	527260	This is all numbers off the top of my head, so I didn't actually expect to talk about this.
529920	531880	What is probably very likely
531880	535440	going to happen over the next few years is you're going to see peak oil occur worldwide.
535740	539740	There's a lot of talk about it. If you do a search on the internet, Google peak oil, you'll get all kinds of
539740	544760	information. Environmentalists have been talking about it for a long time.
545160	547740	I'm not an environmentalist, but I understand the concept
547740	552280	of how Hubert did the analysis, and I personally believe that this is very likely to happen.
552280	555780	I think you're going to see peak oil happen within the next five years. And that's why
555780	559600	you see oil prices being driven up. It's because there's a lot of guys like me sitting at companies like
559600	563660	J.P. Morgan, and they're doing the same analysis, and they're saying, peak oil
563660	568040	is probably going to happen. We need to get our money into oil now and make money on that.
568880	572360	Oil prices at $60, right? Everybody thinks it's speculation?
572360	576420	I don't think so. This is why you care.
576420	579300	You can make money. Or you can avoid losing money, which
579940	582180	depends on if you're risk averse or not.
584360	587800	This is another example of an S-curve. How many people know Harry Dent?
588520	591840	Yeah, that's not surprising. Harry Dent wrote a book in 1989
591840	595860	which was called The Great Boom Ahead, where he predicted that there would be a rapid
595860	599940	IT boom, which would essentially look like an S-curve, and that's exactly what we saw
599940	603900	from 1990 to 2000. We saw the entire information
603900	608020	technology sector boom hugely beyond what anybody imagined, except Harry Dent
608020	612140	did predict it. I don't buy a lot of his other theories. I do believe he was right.
612140	615780	I mean, you can't deny that he was right about what he claimed. He made a second prediction
615780	619860	in his book, which is that there will be
620040	623840	a subsequent wave of S-curve technologies, which will build upon the
623840	628120	infrastructure that was created in the first S-curve. That's where we're at right now.
629100	631940	There's an infrastructure in place. There's networks everywhere. There's wireless
631940	636080	networks, there's standards, there's TCP, IP, all the acronyms,
636080	639940	all those things. It's too hard for me to remember. But ultimately, if you
639940	643380	want to be looking where you should be, you don't want to be
644840	647760	here anymore. This is foundational
648280	651880	stuff that's in place, that's standard. It's not interesting to work on. It's
651880	656080	maintenance work, and it doesn't pay a lot of money, and that's why you see a lot of things being outsourced now.
656080	659700	It's stuff that's duplicatable, that we can send somewhere where there's a different kind of culture
659700	663600	that adapts to those kind of things. What you want to be looking for is
663600	667860	technologies that build on the existing infrastructure that was
667860	669660	created in the last ten years.
671560	675860	And I goofed up because I was going to give away a t-shirt if somebody told me what peak oil
675860	677060	was and I blew it.
680120	681860	Okay, MemMiner.
681960	685200	This is a little tool that I made, which I've been doing this for about
685200	689300	thirteen years, and basically it assumes that a frequency count, a word count
689300	693400	on the internet is roughly equivalent to an S-curve growth of that technology.
693460	697100	That's a big assumption, I know. And how many math people do we have in here?
697700	701440	Oh, thank God. I don't have to worry about all the criticism.
702160	705060	You get a ton of criticism. From my standpoint, I'm very pragmatic.
705060	709100	I don't want to sit down and do a lot of analysis about probability and this and that. I just want a tool,
709200	712900	a rough cut tool that will give me a way to make a decision quickly and easily without having
712900	716860	to do a lot of analysis and a lot of guessing and things like that. And that's what this does.
717800	720240	In my mind, I think of it as a data miner
722420	725200	that anyone can implement and use in a small business
725800	729080	and compete pretty well against large
729080	733260	companies that have substantially more resources and better ideology,
733260	737760	better methodology of how they do predictions.
741520	742980	It's a simple little program.
746420	750280	I'll go through and do it. I don't consider... does anybody want to see a demo of it?
750280	752000	Do you need to see a Java code of it?
754500	757920	How about if I do it at the end? I don't want to break out of this thing right now.
758260	762140	But to me, it's really simple. It really is. It took me about 4 or 5 days to write it.
762140	764620	Anybody could write it with basic programming knowledge.
764940	770140	The key to it is the business concepts behind it and the application of those things.
772320	774280	Okay, here's an example of one of the first
774280	778540	graphs that I ran after I built the tool. This is the first T-Cert question.
778900	782620	Can anybody tell me what this pattern is? What's driving this pattern?
786820	790060	That's true. Okay, this is a graph made off of the keyword
790060	792940	of work, but can you tell me why it's so rhythmic?
794560	798420	Exactly. People don't talk about work on Saturday and Sunday.
798760	802520	That's exactly right. So, T-Cert. I don't want to take those home.
804900	805840	Saturday, Sunday.
805840	809820	Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. And look, Wednesday really is the hump day.
813760	814360	This is
814620	818140	a small example that there really is data that you can extract out of the
818140	822200	Internet. I use Deja News right now because Deja News, I've used it for several years
822200	826240	because it gives me a time history and I don't have to previously know about
826380	830160	a concept. You know, Deja News is being recorded all the
830160	834100	time. So, let's say RSS comes along. And I'm not paying attention. And a year later I
834100	838040	decide, oh, I should have been paying attention. I want to see what RSS is doing. Deja News
838040	841920	has a history that I can go back and I can backfill it. You can see this graph. The date here is
841920	844740	April 2002. I ran this graph two years ago.
845960	848840	Okay, I was able to backfill it and figure out what was
848840	852840	going on. The search engines, I have done pieces to
852840	856890	do the same kind of analysis against the search engines, against Google, against Yahoo,
858680	860680	a couple of the others, but they're very
860680	864740	highly skewed to the present. You can recreate, you can
864740	868760	make a crude approximation of the same data that you can get out of Deja News, but
868760	873160	it's much less granular and it's just, you've got to do manipulations, it's really goofy.
873160	877240	The search engines are very highly skewed to the present. You can't
877240	881400	backfill data without doing a lot of analysis for more than 90 days or maybe a
881400	885500	year. That's another key, using Deja News. Using some
885500	889320	kind of pre-recorded data that had no knowledge of the fact
889460	893240	that a trend was going on. Here's Easter Bunny,
893240	897420	same thing. You can see every year, along comes Easter, people talk about
897420	901180	Easter Bunny. The data is there waiting to be pulled out, you just have to know how
901180	905060	to do it. Here's Comdex. Now, Comdex
905060	909120	got cancelled in 2004, right? Actually, this isn't my new graph.
910180	912920	Comdex got cancelled right here. If I had had this graph
912920	917680	last year, like I did, is there any doubt in my mind that Comdex is going to get cancelled?
918260	921060	There's not a lot of doubt. It was a predictable event.
921080	925020	The fact that it got cancelled in 2005, same thing, a predictable event. You could have made
925020	928440	money on it if you'd gone to the bookies and said, I think Comdex is going to be cancelled.
929640	932600	Very clear trend, starting right here.
933180	936400	Each successive high is lower. Does anybody do technical analysis
936400	940660	of stocks? This is a very similar analogy.
940700	945220	Each successive high never reaches the previous high, so we're clearly in a downtrend.
948540	952040	Now, here's a graph. I went back later. You know, I'm not...
952040	956640	I don't care about money a lot, but I wish I had.
957060	960760	I went back and I retrofitted stuff on here, and I did keyword searches
960760	964720	against stock prices of the bubble. The green is the stock
964720	968420	price of Siebel. The blue is the frequency word count out of
968420	972080	Deje News at the same time period, and what I did was I matched the amplitudes.
972820	976620	You can see there's a... for Siebel, there's a very tight correlation. I mean, this is like a 90...
976620	979740	you know, for the statistical people, this is close to a 90% correlation.
980240	983980	Now, in this particular example, the word count does lag
985000	988020	the actuality, so maybe it doesn't help you so much, but that's
988020	992160	not always the case. Let's take a look at Palladium. Now, this is the one I really
992160	996080	wish I had done in 2000. You can see
996080	999460	clearly that there are rumors about Palladium's price spiking
1001040	1004040	almost two years before it actually happens.
1005280	1008000	Okay, right here. Although, if you really want to get technical and
1008000	1011920	drive it back, you can say that maybe this was the peak, but that's still a year. A year
1011920	1015420	before Platinum peaked, it was... you could have figured out
1015420	1019940	that there was a good chance that Platinum was going to spike. And also, if you take a look,
1019940	1023720	that when Platinum collapses, the keyword told you that it was going to collapse
1023720	1027860	before it happened almost a year ahead of time. That's money.
1027860	1032120	There's money right there. There are large companies that are doing all this analysis right now.
1032120	1035820	The fact that they're doing this analysis... okay, you know, there's guys
1035820	1039640	like me floating all around. I'm not really a
1039640	1043660	large corporation guy, but there are guys in those corporations right now that are doing this and they understand
1043660	1047420	all these concepts. And they've been piling onto the internet over the last five years
1047420	1051440	and what they've done is they've cut the margin of where you can make the money.
1051560	1055660	The latency is shrinking over the last four or five years. This is a very high latency
1055880	1059560	a year. That's amazing to me. If you look at some of the later graphs that
1059560	1063700	happened two or three years later, the latency has shrunk to like three months,
1063700	1066400	four months, things like that. Sometimes it's down to like a month.
1069600	1070680	Here's another example.
1070680	1074340	Applied materials. There was a latency. Applied materials was clearly
1074340	1078840	in an uptrend years before the price spike.
1078840	1082200	And the keyword count told you that it was collapsing
1082200	1085460	before the stock collapsed by about a quarter.
1086020	1090280	And if you look right here, you can see that now the latency has disappeared out of it. There's a latency here
1090280	1093980	in 2000 and as we go along, right about here, now there's no latency anymore.
1111150	1112650	That's an excellent question.
1112650	1116790	I've got a couple of other graphs that will show that it's very hard to determine and that's where there really is.
1117010	1119330	There is no money to be made in mechanical
1123070	1124510	skills. You can't make money
1124510	1128190	in those things, especially in a global market. You have to move into something
1128190	1132090	that requires some kind of artistic ability. And this particular
1132930	1136030	mechanism right here does require a fair amount of interpretation
1136030	1140290	and analysis that sometimes you're wrong. I mean, it's just the way it goes.
1140710	1144270	In the case of Palladium, there were rumors flowing out of Russia
1144270	1148110	that they were having problems and that they weren't going to make deliveries.
1148170	1152070	So in that case, it was the lack of metal that drove the price spike.
1152530	1156070	But you're absolutely right. There are cases where the rumor precedes
1156070	1159750	and sometimes, you know, I'm not so sure that there isn't guys at some of the companies that are actually spiking
1159750	1164230	the internet now in order to create an artificial demand in order to
1164770	1168030	offload their stock or whatever it is. So that's something you've got to be careful of.
1171780	1173820	I didn't run Enron. I didn't have any
1173820	1177680	interest in Enron. I just looked at the dot com boom. But you're more than happy
1177680	1180380	if you want the source code, you're more than happy to run Enron.
1184400	1187220	Okay, JBuilder. How many programmers do we have in here?
1188420	1190860	How many JBuilder programmers?
1191360	1195020	Ah, interesting. You guys are all assembly, low level, right?
1195580	1198000	What kind of languages do we have in here?
1199880	1201820	Well, JBuilder, that's okay.
1207960	1209920	This is a graph of JBuilder
1209920	1214180	and it basically, you can see an S curve right here. The inflection point is roughly
1214180	1218060	right here. And typically what you see, at the inflection point, your rate of change is
1218060	1222200	infinite. As you're switching over from a rising to a falling rate of change,
1222200	1226220	there's a spike there of infinite demand, theoretically. And you can see it reflected
1226220	1230280	in this graph very clearly. There's a huge spike right at the time that
1230280	1234380	JBuilder is undergoing its inflection point. And by about this time
1234380	1237880	right here, you should have been out of JBuilder and you should have been doing something else. Although
1237880	1242220	it's only been in the past year that it finally came to fruition. So there was a
1242220	1246420	lag time of about two years before JBuilder finally died off and
1246420	1253860	Borland had to admit it.
1253860	1257760	No, you have to have a keyword
1257760	1259020	that has uniqueness.
1264700	1268960	Well, you have to do qualifiers. And I've got a couple other graphs in there further on
1268960	1272920	where you'll see that, like ColdFusion. ColdFusion is a perfect one. I ran a graph on ColdFusion
1272920	1277260	because I saw an article on it and there is some evidence to support that ColdFusion is real.
1277260	1280740	So I ran a graph and I got this really strange graph that didn't make any sense to me.
1280880	1285060	And about three days later, after I published it, I found out, oh right, it's
1285060	1289240	ColdFusion the programming language. So it kind of made me look like a fool.
1290080	1293240	So what I did for that graph was I added a new qualifier, ColdFusion
1293240	1296980	Physics. And that gave me a much better picture of what was really going on.
1296980	1301040	So yeah, you've got to be careful about keyword picks, which I have a little bit later on.
1301760	1305460	Delphi. Now this is a real life example of something that I did in my own life.
1305520	1309280	I got into Delphi around 95. I did programming
1309280	1313360	on it. I wrote the wave up. And about 98 it was clear to me that this
1313360	1317360	peak was over and I needed to do something different. So right in here I started
1317360	1321340	learning Java. I went to Sun's conference. I started learning a whole
1321340	1325140	different ideology and methodology of the way I did programs. And I switched over here and I missed
1325140	1329360	the crash. There's a lot of Delphi programmers. Delphi is an extremely good language. I like
1329360	1332920	it a lot. It's the best thing I ever used. I can't make money in it anymore.
1333180	1336520	And there's a lot of ex-Delphi programmers that found that out the hard way.
1339480	1341020	This, for some reason,
1341600	1345760	I put this up and this is like the single most red graph on my site.
1347080	1349860	The guys are just fanatical about scripting languages.
1349860	1353560	It's very strange. Here you see
1354580	1358160	Perl. Very clear rise. Very clear fall.
1358400	1362360	Should have got out of it right around here. Maybe. Maybe should have.
1363060	1365820	PHP. Same thing. Rises. Inflection
1365820	1369800	points are roughly out here. It's not a true S-curve. It's not identical. But in real life that never
1369800	1373760	happens because you get all kinds of variations. You just have to kind of guesstimate between peak and fall.
1373760	1376800	And then Python and Ruby.
1376860	1381740	Python, this doesn't show enough detail, but Python to me
1381740	1385760	is the choice out of these four. If you were going to have to do a project right now
1385760	1389220	I would choose Python. Assuming I could fit it into
1389760	1394520	the requirements of the project. I mean you always get languages that fit a certain set of things.
1394580	1397120	And you can't just choose a language in order to boost
1397740	1400900	your employability. You have to look at what you're doing for the customer.
1400900	1404680	There's also a very interesting thing that happens in the past year
1404680	1409140	in that all scripting languages have suddenly got a high level of interest
1409140	1412180	out of nowhere. And I don't know what drives that.
1415420	1417740	YMAX. How many people know YMAX?
1418300	1421000	YMAX is going to be big. I believe YMAX is going to
1421000	1424380	be a big technology. YMAX basically replaces 802.11b
1424900	1426880	with the same
1429840	1432920	imagine 802.11b with a 30 mile range.
1433560	1435580	And also I think, you guys can correct me
1435580	1438840	I'm far from perfect. You can correct me if I'm wrong.
1438840	1443260	But I believe that YMAX already has permission to be able to tap into cell phone
1443260	1446920	networks. So you're going to see a huge amount of grassroots competition
1446920	1451300	against the major wireless carriers from people setting up their own shops
1451300	1455440	in YMAX. I can easily imagine someone getting a few million dollars
1455440	1459540	of capital, dumping a few YMAX things in the center of maybe 30 cities
1459540	1462920	and just cutting the hell out of Verizon's market or
1463260	1464240	Singular's market.
1467900	1469760	Blogs. This is an interesting one.
1471100	1472420	This is a little bit more
1475720	1478260	This is a question. This is a t-shirt question.
1479420	1483160	You can see pretty clearly here. This is the moving average. You got to do a moving average.
1483160	1486160	There's too many spikes that happen on the internet. Too many weird nuances.
1486420	1490920	But basically by looking at a moving average you can get an idea. And we can see that blogs are clearly rising since 2002.
1490920	1495020	And it was probably a good technology to get on around January 2004, which a lot of people did.
1496720	1499040	Did anybody read the article that was in
1499040	1502920	USA Today or one of the major papers about two months ago where they said that
1502920	1506860	27% of the public does not know what a blog is. Did anybody read that?
1508480	1511280	Now tie those two numbers together. I have an inflection graph
1511280	1515180	here, right? It hasn't reached a peak point yet. I know it's an
1515180	1519260	exponential function and I know that 27% of the people have not
1519260	1523600	been exposed to the meme yet. What kind of
1524360	1527840	thing can I derive from that? I can make a prediction from that.
1528460	1531420	T-shirt. Anybody that can tell me gets a t-shirt. Anybody that makes a good
1531420	1532900	guess gets a t-shirt.
1541060	1547760	Can you give me more detail? I don't want to go down the calculus path.
1547760	1551780	It's too much stuff for me. I took what I needed from it and I threw the rest away.
1552420	1555320	Anybody else? Down there. Black. Black shirt.
1560280	1562420	It's going to peak within the next year.
1562540	1563260	T-shirt.
1580770	1582450	It's not going to be a big money maker.
1582530	1586750	What you'll see is you'll see a lot of hysteria in the media over the next year
1586750	1590650	and then that'll be it. It'll have peaked and it'll be ramping down. That doesn't mean you can't make
1590650	1594770	money in it. All it is is an indicator. There are technologies that have peaked that you can
1594770	1598810	still make money in. That's one thing I don't want to tell you
1598810	1602350	is that if it goes through an inflection point and it peaks that you can't make money in anymore
1602350	1606610	it's a warning indicator that tells you you need to look at the surroundings
1606610	1609950	you need to look at your competition, you need to look at your skill set and make
1611470	1614210	a knowledgeable decision about what you're going to do. You can make money in post
1614850	1618430	like J2EE. I don't know, probably nobody here has read my site. I put a
1618430	1622650	controversial article out about 3 months ago
1622650	1626490	that got a lot of Java people riled up which basically says that J2EE is about to go
1626490	1630550	through its inflection point. That it's peaked out as a technology. I have no
1631210	1634350	interest in moving on to another technology right now because I still make money in it
1634350	1638190	and I'll probably ride it for 3 or 4 more years but if I were an entry level
1638190	1642350	person getting into the market I don't think I would choose J2EE because
1642350	1646410	there's already going to be a bunch of guys like me that have experience and knowledge that are going to compete against you
1646410	1649030	and the market isn't expanding anymore.
1651630	1654050	Now, it's time for the half time here.
1660040	1662640	How many people think so far that this
1662640	1666520	has been more interesting than you thought it would be? Oh, that's so
1666520	1670660	gratifying. I mean, I kind of took this
1670660	1674600	as a lark. I sent in like a basic program, you know, basic speech
1675020	1677800	People that have looked on the disk realize now that it's like about
1677800	1681860	one third of what I'm doing right now. It was like a perfunctory effort and then I decided
1682360	1685140	a couple days ago, well, I really need to do something serious on this.
1685540	1689820	So that's nice. That's what was my aim was to get, to have people interested and have some kind of
1689820	1691340	value out of this presentation.
1693300	1697820	Wi-Fi phone. How many people know Wi-Fi phone? That's another big one.
1697820	1699720	It's going to be tied into WiMAX, I think.
1702080	1705840	Okay, so we already talked about this. Inflection point tends to be at about the 50% saturation
1705840	1709640	point. That's not always true. That's just a rule of thumb. It's very easy to get
1710180	1713500	and we'll look at another graph here later on where you get a quick ramp up
1713500	1717660	but the infrastructure is not in place to support a technology. There's two technologies
1718940	1722120	that tried to go through inflection points. They tried to go through a
1722120	1726480	growth phase and the support just wasn't there. One of them is Bluetooth. I was here two years ago
1726480	1729820	and there was a lot of Bluetooth fervor. There was a lot of Bluetooth hacking, things like that.
1729820	1733920	So I went back and I did a graph on Bluetooth and I was surprised to see that Bluetooth
1733920	1737960	tried to take off three or four years ago and it died out because there wasn't
1738880	1741980	a critical mass to make it go. And then within the last two years
1741980	1745980	it's picked up a lot. So a lot of times you'll see new technologies sputter and try and
1745980	1749740	start and then they'll die out because there's some missing factor there. Service-oriented
1749740	1754020	architecture is another one. It came out around 2000, 2001, the buzzword,
1754020	1757360	all that, and it tried to take off and it died. But for the past
1758200	1761580	17 or 18 months it's been rising steadily. It's now something that
1762360	1765400	organizations either understand and feel that they need or
1765400	1768280	there's some critical component there that makes it viable.
1770240	1773400	We already did the blogging. RSS feeds.
1773700	1777440	This is very highly correlated to blogs. Same difference. By doing a search on
1777440	1781540	and you can see here I used a qualifier. RSS RDF. I don't know if
1781540	1785960	everybody can see that or not. People in back probably can't. So I used a
1785960	1788420	qualified word here because RSS wasn't a good search.
1791300	1792420	And now we're going to talk about the
1792420	1796360	problems with this. The biggest single problem that I run into is that I'm part
1796360	1800140	of the meme. How do I know to search for something? How do I know about RSS?
1800140	1804360	I read it in an article. I'm part of the meme propagation and statistically
1804360	1808860	I will learn about the meme at about the 50% mark which means I can't make any money in it.
1810660	1812380	So I've got to figure out a way to
1812380	1816320	track the meme before it gets to the 50% mark. I don't want to be like everybody
1816320	1820420	else and be the average. So that's one problem
1820420	1824620	with the methodology I'm using right now. What it requires is me to be reading articles all the time
1825460	1828360	I have to spend a lot of time trying to be at the forefront of technology
1828360	1832280	when there are easier ways to do it. It is subject to manipulation although
1832280	1836400	not anywhere near as much as you would think. When you do a search off Deja News you are doing a search
1836400	1840260	against hundreds of thousands and millions of people. It's very
1840260	1844900	hard to inject a meme and create an artificial result. I know because I've tried.
1845420	1848900	It's not statistically rigorous. There's a lot of criticism from
1848900	1852980	people that are mathematicians. I've heard a lot of criticism about it and it is kind of flaky
1853520	1856840	but it's worked well for me for 13 years. It's helped me make
1856960	1860400	a lot of decisions where I could have easily gone off onto a bad path and ended up
1860960	1864600	in another industry. Maybe that would be good, maybe that would be bad but
1864600	1868780	that's not the path I chose. It works very well for
1868780	1872980	technical trends. It does not work as well for social trends. It doesn't work
1872980	1876980	for things that have lifetimes of
1876980	1881020	20 years or 30 years. It works very well for a range of 4 to 5 years and we'll
1881020	1884900	look at why in a few minutes. If I were
1885740	1889040	serious about using this as a technology to drive my company
1889040	1893660	and make decisions with, I would throw away the current methodology of using Deja News.
1894120	1897180	I would start capturing RSS feeds and I would build my own
1897180	1901160	database and that will allow me to capture trends as
1901160	1905620	they happen in real time and I guarantee you that there's people out there right now that are doing it.
1906200	1909600	I did it. I wrote a little piece about 6 months ago.
1909660	1913220	It has some technical problems but you can easily get around them if you spend
1913220	1917180	enough time on it. I have a lot of other things to do but there is a lot of value
1917180	1921320	to be done in applying this methodology to pulling down real time
1921320	1925240	RSS feeds, building a database and looking at rates of change that are
1925240	1927940	happening in keywords. I believe there's a lot of value there.
1929040	1932100	We already talked about skewing factor. One of the problems is
1932100	1935720	you lose abstract relationships with the way you store the RSS.
1935720	1938220	There's some things there but they can be gotten around.
1940580	1943700	Okay, so now we did the business process.
1943700	1948500	We did a tactical implementation that gives us real decision making tools.
1948560	1951800	Now what we're going to do is we're going to push this back up into a strategic framework
1952500	1956260	that will let us make decisions about more than just about what technology
1956260	1959540	I choose. And this, I admit, this is going to be kind of flaky.
1962000	1964360	One of the big justifications for Moore's Law
1964360	1967640	people like to quote Moore's Law. Everybody knows Moore's Law, right?
1967640	1969540	How many people don't know Moore's Law?
1972620	1976220	It's a trade off. I can't let Moore's Law go.
1977520	1980140	It gets quoted a lot because it's used as a justification
1980140	1982960	that the number of transistors will double every year
1984040	1987960	so there will always be an IT industry that will continue booming.
1989260	1990660	And I would agree with that
1990660	1992720	if there were no other factors.
1995360	1999160	People have a finite amount of time and effort to spend on anything.
2001940	2003320	Geeks, techno geeks,
2003320	2006460	they like technical things, they like trends, they like
2007240	2010660	detail, but ultimately people are social animals.
2010660	2014540	They will spend time on things that they enjoy
2014540	2018680	or things that they're forced to do. Other things they will throw
2018680	2022520	away in favor of things that they enjoy or things that they're forced to do.
2022800	2026640	And this is part of the reason why the Memminer works off of Deja News. People talk about
2026640	2030120	things that they enjoy or that they're forced to do.
2031200	2034660	For the average person, they spend their time sleeping,
2035280	2038900	working, I'm glad I got a laugh, that's good, shopping,
2038900	2042780	eating, having sex. The range of that
2042780	2047480	variance is not a lot from person to person on average.
2047840	2050900	So if I want somebody to read the internet two hours a day and I get
2051020	2054800	a certain level of growth, now to double that, I've got to have them read the internet
2054800	2058840	four hours a day, it's not going to happen. They've got other things they want to go do.
2058840	2062280	They want to go eat, they want to go have sex, they want to go visit Las Vegas.
2062380	2067580	So there is a fundamental limiting factor in the growth of the internet based on what people's time is.
2067580	2071600	There's other factors on top of that. Now for some people,
2072660	2074440	you do get a wide variance.
2076860	2077580	For instance...
2081670	2084650	But I don't think we're going to see a society that looks like this.
2087700	2090260	Now we're going to look at Deja News again, and what we're going to do
2090260	2094180	is we're going to invert. What I was looking for was uniqueness, right?
2094800	2098440	What we're going to look for now is the ether of
2098440	2101300	Deja News. We're going to look for the rate of growth of Deja News
2103080	2104600	abstracted of all uniqueness.
2106040	2109800	What I'm going to do is I'm going to use keywords that have no
2110660	2113560	identifying ability, that are used in anything, anytime.
2114120	2117820	This, have, one, all, them, will, other. That comes out of the top number
2117820	2122900	of people that do crypto analysis. E-T-A-O-N-R-I-S-H-D, right?
2122900	2126420	That's what you do a frequency analysis to be able to crack codes that are not well done.
2126420	2130640	Well, you can do the same thing with keywords. What I did was I went through the top 100 keywords
2130640	2134240	and I picked out ones that were fairly generic, and then I did a search
2134240	2138280	and you can see very clearly exponential growth in Deja News.
2138400	2142420	This is one reason why the MemMiner works is because over any small period
2142420	2144660	like from here to here, it looks linear.
2145800	2150400	There's not skew being introduced by Deja News into the uniqueness of a meme.
2150400	2152260	There's a little bit, but not enough to matter.
2152260	2157320	Okay, so this is what the ether of Deja News looks like.
2157960	2158920	The transport.
2160020	2164340	If you do a really detailed search, you can pick out events that cause excitement on the internet.
2165520	2169720	And these are admittedly, I guessed at them, I think I'm right on most of them.
2169800	2172780	JFK crash, a lot of people can't see this, but there's a spike right here.
2174220	2177020	Y2K causes a spike, there's a spike here I didn't hunt down.
2177180	2180020	Bush election 2000, that definitely caused a controversy.
2180020	2183160	9-11 causes a big spike. What's interesting about 9-11
2184020	2185860	is that if you do keyword searches
2188520	2191860	on other terms, you get spikes.
2191860	2195940	If you look for death around that time period, you get a spike. If you look for
2196400	2199980	peace, you get a spike. What you don't get a spike in...
2199980	2203060	Okay, remember, we're talking about people that have finite bandwidth, right?
2203060	2207300	They're using more bandwidth to talk about 9-1-1, they're using more bandwidth to talk about death,
2207300	2211420	they're using more bandwidth to talk about peace. What is being cut out
2211420	2214660	of the equation to free up that bandwidth for those things?
2214920	2218700	Can anybody give me an idea or a guess? It took me weeks to figure this out.
2220360	2223100	No, there's, well, there's a particular thing that
2223100	2225940	it cuts into, and I think it'll make sense to everybody once they hear.
2226700	2234380	No. Work, who said work?
2234460	2238880	T-shirt. Work goes down. And I remember 9-1-1, what did I do on 9-1-1?
2238880	2241140	We all sat around talking, we didn't do any work.
2245550	2247410	Now, here's the bad news.
2249990	2252450	Deja News gets very flaky after 2004.
2253530	2255590	I got a couple theories about it.
2257530	2259390	I have three theories about it.
2259910	2264270	One is the shift of blogging, clearly. What people were using Deja News for, they now use blogging for.
2264270	2267890	But that does not account for the rate of change that you see here. This is almost instantaneous.
2267890	2272110	You see the moving average here, but the actual numbers,
2272110	2276870	it changes within like two months, and I know that's not happening. Blogging is taking away chunks.
2277390	2280110	Google changes their methodology, their search methodology.
2280110	2283930	If I go back and I run a query two or three months later, it changes. They're doing subtle
2283930	2288290	shifts in the way they do things, and it shows up. And I do think that there's some kind of
2288290	2292090	error in the way that they're manipulating or accounting for things
2292090	2295730	after 2004. But I think a lot of what you're seeing
2295730	2299030	is the inflection point in the internet itself.
2299250	2303610	If you read enough articles, you see a couple articles came up in the past year or two
2303610	2307830	that talk about a slowing rate of growth in the internet. I think that that's what you're seeing.
2307830	2311870	I think you're seeing a slowing rate of growth in the internet, and it will impact
2311870	2316450	all the other industries that are associated with that, mostly consumer-related industries.
2316630	2319910	Chip industry, business software, it won't affect
2319910	2324110	niche markets so much. And it probably won't affect security very much.
2324110	2327850	And now, we're going to take a look at a couple concepts
2329630	2332310	to make strategic
2332310	2334610	decisions about how you're going to spend your resources.
2338030	2341330	Very abstract concept. What caused the IT boom?
2342070	2345790	If I were to create a market basket of all the items
2345790	2349810	that create a cost of how I get information, chips cost
2349810	2353630	me money, people cost me money, I have to develop methodologies, there's a lot of
2353630	2357570	communications costs, I could create a market basket of the cost of
2357570	2361590	information, assign it to a unit of information, and I would be able to get a rough number
2361590	2364950	that each unit of information cost me a certain amount of money.
2365830	2369530	Now, up until 2000, everybody was making money, right? That's because
2369530	2373570	I have a price of information. I'm selling that information to somebody somewhere
2373570	2378770	and I'm making a profit margin on it. As we get down to 2000,
2378770	2381930	cost of information is not decreasing like it used to,
2381930	2386370	and companies that are used to this curve, you know, they get into this mindset of seeing this,
2386370	2389250	they overran it and they went into debt and they went out of business.
2389630	2393570	Some companies veered off to the side and adapted and survived.
2393770	2398010	But ultimately, if the cost of information stops falling,
2398010	2402270	there are fundamental changes in the marketplace that companies are going to have to adapt to.
2402270	2405750	And ultimately what you have to do, because market forces
2405750	2410150	force you to adapt to a pricing model that the public sets, or governments,
2410150	2414250	you have to find some way to drop your cost of information.
2414250	2417950	And that's why you see outsourcing over the last 3 or 4 years. Companies have to.
2417950	2423110	They have no choice. Otherwise they'll go out of business, because there is a ceiling on what they can charge.
2423590	2425370	That's a very strategic concept.
2425990	2430070	It sets the stage. You can't do anything with it directly. It's not a tool.
2431390	2434050	And this is another picture that shows you roughly the same thing
2434050	2437970	from an economic standpoint. As a market matures, your marginal cost
2437970	2441890	of processing stuff rises. Your marginal return falls.
2441890	2446310	You eventually reach a point where there is no profit margin, as you pick up all the easy things.
2446710	2449250	What that means is that there is money in hard things.
2450170	2454510	And the same difference. Now this is a theory of my own, just from watching the market.
2455030	2458830	Watching the IT market for the last 10 or 15 years,
2458830	2461990	the market rewarded diversity. As I created programs
2461990	2465710	that did more and more stuff like Word, it does all the bells and whistles and stuff,
2465710	2469250	I got a bigger and bigger share of the market, and people bought my product.
2469930	2472950	But once I reached the point, the inflection point,
2472950	2476850	the inflection point punishes diversity, and it rewards cost-cutting.
2476850	2481290	And that's the point that we're at right now, for consumer-related industries.
2481290	2484810	Like I said, there are niche markets that don't get impacted this way right now.
2486170	2488810	So, from my standpoint, this is what I see.
2489430	2493110	I see the up-cycle favoring diversity, and everyone pursuing that,
2493110	2496530	and they get into a mindset over the last 20 years that diversity, diversity, diversity,
2496530	2499550	I want to create a diverse product and get as much market share as possible.
2499550	2505030	We've seen a fundamental change around 2000, which now punishes diversity and rewards cost.
2505090	2508130	And most people's minds are still in this state.
2514300	2516540	I don't know if I should go into this or not.
2519920	2523380	This is the single most read picture on my site.
2525680	2527240	And it surprised me a little bit.
2528780	2531240	In a nutshell,
2537060	2540600	diversity functions on contexts that are mismatched.
2541480	2545020	If I had two clones, and they had identical information sets,
2545020	2547360	and they know the exact same information,
2547360	2552300	and they've had the exact same experiences, their communications and teamwork will be perfect.
2552300	2554760	There will be no miscommunications, correct?
2554760	2558900	As those clones have different life experiences,
2558900	2563260	their contexts will shift apart, and there will be a set in the middle that they share,
2563260	2568220	but there will be unique features that they each have, and then you'll start getting miscommunications.
2568340	2570780	If I wanted to cut my cost of information
2572340	2575160	in teamwork or software development,
2575160	2578660	what I would do is I would try to get contexts to be
2578660	2581800	as matched as possible within a team framework.
2582800	2585940	Like I said, this is very high level, and there's some other things I played around with it,
2585940	2589720	but I put it in there just to maybe get people thinking about ways that they could
2590520	2595240	drive their teams or their software development towards a
2595680	2598160	competitive methodology, and what you have to focus on
2599120	2605940	is reducing transaction costs internally in your organization.
2606040	2610340	There's a couple other things here. I'm sitting in a microbrewery, and I realized, wow, microbreweries are a lot like the software industry
2610340	2613900	in certain ways. The company that I work for right now
2615420	2618360	basically resells IBM software, but what we do
2618360	2622100	is we tweak it to a very minimum level, five or ten percent,
2622100	2625760	and match it to that set of customers that are willing to deal with
2626180	2629840	changing their business processes to map to what the software does, and that's a very
2630260	2634200	efficient model that I think can last over time. I don't think a lot of very
2634200	2638280	customized software, it's going to have a very hard time surviving in business software over the next
2638280	2642280	ten years. And we'll
2642280	2644620	let that go. I'll go ahead and I'll take some questions.
2659030	2662050	The question is, do I think that the difference between
2662050	2666710	the dichotomy between diversity and cost-cutting is driving some of the open source movement?
2667090	2670330	I don't know. I don't... I've looked at the open source movement
2670330	2674330	and I still honestly don't have an opinion about it one way or the other. I can't get a reading
2674330	2678010	on it out of the graphs that I've run. I can't speak to it one way or the other.
2684450	2688190	I haven't done any analysis of that, but I would say companies that are doing Six Sigma are probably
2688190	2691530	unless they're in like a financial industry, I think they're probably
2692530	2696570	at a competitive disadvantage. I think they're producing quality that the market isn't going to reward.
2698450	2700350	That's a guess off the top of my head.
2705890	2707670	Yeah, you can use the search engines. You can
2707670	2711510	get a lot of the same data out of Google. It comes out in a different format
2711510	2715270	and you've got to massage it and you've got to work with it and it's very crude. It doesn't give you the same
2716610	2719390	detail. But yeah, you can pull it out
2719390	2723350	of other sources. I used to use Monster. I used to run queries against Monster. I used to use Dice.
2723350	2727630	I used to use Miscellaneous Jobs News Group for people that remember that far back.
2736010	2737370	No, I haven't done anything on security
2737370	2741470	because that's not my field. One more.
2743230	2745390	A lot of what you just saw, not in so much detail.
2745390	2749070	There's more business here than I have on my website because I haven't updated for a while.
2749070	2752770	There's a lot more graphs that show you more detail
2753750	2757050	in different industries like religion. I did some queries on religion,
2757050	2761650	social trends, things like that. So you can get an idea of different things. And actually, I did mean to bring that up.
2763610	2764890	I'm not out of time yet, but
2765610	2767470	we can look at a couple of those real quick.
2773940	2795200	Or maybe not. There's no doubt in my mind
2795880	2799160	after watching what's going on in the marketplace, there are a lot of people
2799160	2802860	that are smarter than me. MBA program teaches all these things. I haven't been through MBA.
2802860	2806580	I did a little bit of an MBA, but they teach you these kind of concepts and there are guys out there that are applying them.
2806580	2811480	I have no doubts. You can see it in the way the information has been changing over the last five years.
2811480	2815660	There's someone that's taken a chunk, taken a slice of the profit margin out of it.
2817760	2819300	Let's see, what can we look at?
2819300	2823180	Oh, here's saving J2E. If you go through here, you can see that J2E
2823180	2825160	looks a lot like it's topping out.
2826100	2828740	Yeah, these are good right here, Republicans.
2829380	2831520	Does anybody care about the federal deficit?
2833140	2838200	You bet people care. Whether the media tells you they care or not, it's being talked about a lot.
2838720	2841240	Trade deficit. Does anybody care about the trade deficit?
2842520	2845980	Media doesn't talk about it, but people are talking about it.
2847040	2849240	You can get a lot of interesting information that runs
2849240	2853260	counter to what the media is telling you. As a closing comment, I'll tell you
2853260	2857440	that when you see Alan Greenspan talking on TV, don't listen to his words
2857440	2861760	anymore. Watch the beads of perspiration on his forehead.
2861760	2865440	That's what matters. And that's it.
2865680	2869460	I got two more t-shirts up here. Two more t-shirts if people want to nab them.
2876040	2878140	Oh, am I out of time?
2878360	2880180	Do I have like two more minutes?
2886420	2889800	Real meme. R-E-A-L-M-E-M-E.
2895820	2897940	Yeah, yeah, that's what I'm doing right now. I'm going to run it.
2898180	2899420	I got like a minute.
2910500	2915120	It's a very simple program. Send me an email and I'll send you the base to it.
2915120	2919400	I'm not going to support it because it's got a couple bugs in it that I work around because I don't want to spend time on it.
2921360	2923600	But we'll run one real quick here that might be funny.
2940470	2941750	No, I think there's profit.
2941750	2945750	I think ultimately what you're going to be driven into is, at least in the United States,
2945750	2947710	I think you're going to be driven into niche markets.
2950990	2952990	In a single phrase.
2953490	2957910	Niche markets that are supported by small industries that have high profit margins
2957910	2961550	that are willing to pay for some level of customized software development.
2962550	2965670	But that's a trend that's going to run over, I think, five to ten years.
2965670	2969930	It's hard to say. I do think, for anybody that cares,
2969930	2974010	I do think J2EE has peaked. And if I were entering the market, I don't think I would put any effort
2974010	2979250	into trying to learn J2EE as an enterprise system.
2979250	2981790	I think there's alternatives that are on the horizon.
2982530	2985570	I think your time would be better spent in other things that are built upon the infrastructure
2985570	2990110	of the existing S-curve that's already run.
2991550	2993690	Oh, I was going to mention Newbridge.
2994070	2997430	The Newberry guys in there. The Newberry guys in there that are running that
2997890	3002030	that tracker, that wireless tracker, that's an example of a technology that's built on
3002090	3005530	a foundation that's been built over the last ten years. That's the kind of thing I would look at.
3007490	3008210	Okay.
3027600	3032120	I look for it. I see it. It comes up in different places
3032120	3035240	in different ways. It's intuitive. It's from seeing it so often.
3035240	3038260	It happens around 2004, 2005.
3041700	3044540	Gosh, I'm really sorry here. One more minute.
3066720	3068160	Well, if I have a good net connection
3068160	3071120	and I'm running it threaded, probably 20, 30 seconds.
3074080	3076680	Yeah, I have done run RFID and that's on my site.
3077740	3080180	It's in an uptrend. It's in a pre-inflection state.
3081640	3083300	Definitely worth putting money into.
3085880	3086500	Hmm?
3094030	3098610	That's a whole other session. That's a political session.
3100150	3101390	No, I don't blame you.
3102290	3104090	Anyway, here's Paris Hilton.
3105750	3109590	She's still got some life there. I'm surprised. I didn't expect it.
3110470	3111710	Okay, thank you.