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0	4820	All right, super. Thank you very much, Justin. And welcome to day three of Monero Village.
6260	12640	And let's see, let me... all out today with the fanciness of the video setup here, if
12640	18600	you can tell. Let me... and we hope it works out. So part of this pandemic stuff is that
19160	25040	we're all individuals trying to put together something that looks sophisticated from a
25040	31980	video production standpoint. All right, so here we go to the talk. And I'm going to take
31980	41840	these because I'll put them back on for the... and I'll be talking about Monero and try to
41840	51280	make the case that is sound money safe mode. So about myself, I am trained as a physicist.
51280	57060	So I did experimental particle physics at Harvard. I spent 10 years there, including
57060	62340	the undergrad. And from that, I got a sense of always wanting to look at data. So I will
62340	69560	be showing a fair amount of empirical data, both financial, economic, and blockchain data.
70660	75660	Most of my career was spent in the nonprofit sector. So I was a symphony orchestra musician.
75660	79540	That was my job out of grad school. So I ended up doing over 700 concerts professionally
79540	83500	as a violinist and then an artist. And then concurrently with that, I became a medical
83500	89060	school professor doing radiation oncology physics. So about a couple thousand cancer
89060	97100	patients fight their against cancer using a focused high dose radiation. After that,
97100	102060	I want to kind of branch out a bit. So I ended up signing up for the executive program at Yale.
102320	108740	And at that point, I got used to the for-profit world. And I made a transition at that point,
108740	113480	joined a hedge fund, managed about a billion dollars in assets in equities. I became a
114560	119640	research and as part of that, published a paper on the role of liquidity in the pricing,
119640	124380	which won a paper of the year award from the CFA Institute, which is a kind of premier
124980	131540	credentialing authority for equity analysts. After that, I do blockchain kind of just as
131540	137380	a hobby initially, but then I did that. There were only a few things in life and, you know,
137380	142560	as fundamental innovations. I was in grad school when the dot-com bubble happened and that kind
142560	148760	of revolutionized life. And when blockchain came around, after initially being rather skeptical
148760	154500	about it, I came to the conclusion that a genuine kernel of innovation in the Satoshi white paper.
154720	160560	And so I am often my own as a solo independent consultant. I seek to bridge two very separate
160560	166160	worlds that often never talk to each other and kind of have oftentimes nothing but the
166160	170820	negative stereotypes about the other side. But I think there's value to be had from both sides
170820	175140	to have genuine engage with the other. So the two sides I'm talking about are shown in the bottom
175140	180340	here. There's a DEF CON world. So that's non-commercial, open source, cypherpunk,
180340	186460	roots cryptocurrency. That is on the one side. And then on the other side is asset protection,
186860	192660	trust and families, portfolio management and estate and tax planning. So yeah,
192660	198580	there's a very parallel that is happening. So basically, there are OGTO guys who I talk to
198580	204200	and try to help to put together a plan to use the existing laws to help their cryptocurrency
204200	212980	assets from a legal standpoint, from legal threats, and also to legally minimize taxes.
213160	217640	And from the other side, in the traditional world, there are a lot of people who are very
217640	224220	interested in cryptocurrency, but find themselves having a whole lot to learn. And so I try to help
224220	230840	them with a Sherpa sort of service as someone who can bridge both of the worlds and speak both of
230840	237760	their languages. But nonprofit work these days, I am a community volunteer with the Monero Project.
237760	244320	So I am volunteering to be speaking here right now. I do not get any compensation from the Monero
244320	249300	Project. I have never sought to get compensation from the Monero Project. In fact, I want to keep
249300	257220	my independence because my primary duty is to my consulting clients to whom I have the duty of
257220	265800	looking at this space. And by this space, I mean the space of nonprofit, open source,
265800	272220	non-security cryptocurrencies, and look at that space and come to a conclusion to what is going
272220	278480	to be best for my clients. And in my current opinion, there are really just two projects worth
278480	286990	mentioning in this, and those would be Bitcoin and Monero. So my talk today is called Sound Money
286990	293430	Safe and it has got four parts. First, I am going to show the backdrop, the backdrop that none of
293430	297990	us can avoid here in 20N, that is that of the global pandemic that is happening. And I will
297990	304490	focus on the economic impact of that. Second part is independent scarcity. So given that fiat
305030	312630	money is showing signs of strain at the moment, I will go into independent sources of scarcity that
313320	318810	would be wise for people to consider at this point in history. Third is fungibility versus
318810	325750	surveillance. So it turns out that not all of the independent scarcity sources are aimed as in terms
325750	332370	of fungibility and against a larger backdrop of growing mass surveillance. There are societal
332370	338250	issues to consider about the fungibility or lack thereof in sources of independent scarcity. And
338250	344250	then finally is the section involved. And this section has two different levels. So the more
344250	351030	superficial level would be that of considering independent sources of scarcity as a content of
351030	355830	one's portfolio. So basically an investment sort of framework where I put my hedge fund hat on and
355830	360110	at Monero and Bitcoin and gold from that perspective. And then a more
360110	365230	deeper level of actual, you know, involvement of people into this project.
366030	371190	All right, and I wanted to know that I gave acknowledgement to a few people who I had
371190	377710	conscience with in preparing for this talk. So Howard H.Y. Hsu, a very frequent Monero code
377710	384510	contributor, Dr. Serang of the Monero Research Lab, and Dr. Francisco Cabanas of the core team.
384510	390710	So thank you to them. Okay, so much has been said about the pandemic, but I'll just
391310	399710	frame it with a couple of ideas here. So one is that one could look at this whole pandemic as a
399710	406330	very clever people of social engineering on the part of a microbe. So it's been social engineered
406330	412610	to take advantage of how humans have evolved to have simple heuristics to determine whether we're
412610	418190	sick or not. So here's what I'm talking about. So this is how most of us behave pre-pandemic.
418190	423390	We'd be sitting around at home. I feel like going out. Yes or no, if you don't feel like going out,
423390	428170	you remain at home. But eventually you do feel like going out. And so because you feel like
428170	432530	going out, therefore you must be healthy. That's the dramatic conclusion that you come up with,
432530	437570	because if you were not feeling health, obviously you would not feel like going out. You would feel
437570	444110	lying down in bed. And now we can look back at this kind of self-diagnosis with a bit of
445270	450570	kind of like it was a long ago sort of thing to do to come to the conclusion that you're
450570	456310	healthy if you feel like going out. That's how it was, and that's how the virus basically
456310	462450	social engineered that tendency. So now we're public. Do we see anyone coughing? And that
462450	468770	is our criteria for making a thought assessment as to the wellness or sickness state of people
468770	474470	who we interact with. So in the pre-pandemic times, we would notice that I saw somebody
474470	478470	coughing and then we would say, oh, gee, that must be a sick person. I'm going to avoid that.
478470	482550	But otherwise, just carry on. So you might distance from someone who's coughing, but
482550	486870	you don't make a big out of it in your mind. You just kind of make a little note and then maybe
487790	492250	stay another two away from them when you're talking to them. But otherwise, just carry on.
492450	504610	So basically, the SARS-CoV-2, the virus that's caused the COVID-19 disease and the current
504610	513490	pandemic can be seen as having social engineered reaction to diagnosing wellness versus sickness.
513550	518430	And of course, no soon likes to be told that your instincts are way off. And there's something new
518430	527310	out there that is screwing up your ability to tell sickness wellness. So lots of people don't
527310	532110	really react well to that. They take offense to the idea that natural instincts could possibly
532110	538090	be wrong. But unfortunately, they're lost to that, to kind of clinging to this notion that one's
538090	546530	former framework was even in the face of new data. All right, on the right side, I'm showing a paper
546530	551590	that was published in The Lancet, which is the premier medical journal from the UK. And what they
551590	557370	did is that these researchers took a COVID-19 virus, and they deliberately put some of it on
557370	563950	money, on cash money. And then they measured how long it would take for that virus to dissipate
563950	570210	and not be measurable anymore. And you get there's a rather unfortunate situation here.
570210	577430	Seeing that the 50-hour mark, but they're still seeing detectable amounts of virus on money.
577730	584390	So days after deliberately putting virus on money, it's still detectable. There's actually three or
584390	590650	four days that are necessary for the virus levels to become undetectable on money.
591170	598010	So basically, this puts a damper on the physical media as a store of value.
600640	606100	So of course, this has rippled through the economy. Here I'm looking at M1 money supply is
606100	611380	the amount of money that's in circulation in cash, credit, and checking accounts. And I'm
611380	619440	looking at all of the fiat currencies of the G20. Here I'm getting data from 2009. And I 2009 because
619440	625520	that is the year in which Bitcoin became a realty. So basically, in January of 2009, I'm showing that
625520	631420	one on the vertical scale here for all of the G20 fiat currencies. And then you can see that
631420	636300	every single one of them has inflated since then. And then if you look at 20 here,
636300	643160	you can see that there's a hockey stick shape curve, in which the money supplies of all the
643160	648720	G20 were growing previous to the pandemic. But now that the pandemic has hit, it's really taken
648720	657220	off. As a med school professor, I can't help but think of doubling times and for tumor growth,
657220	663340	because this is the kind of thing that we in oncology think about in terms of exponential
663340	667940	growth. It's like what's the link time? How long does it take for a cancerous tumor to double in
667940	674220	size? And if you apply that same sort of framework here, you can see that pre-pandemic, it took the
674220	682780	average G20 currency about maybe 10 years, 10 years to double, 8 to 10 years. So let's just say
682780	689720	it's, you know, years to double. That means in 80 years, there will have been 10 instances of double,
689720	695460	in other words, 2 to the 10th, or 1000 fold increase in the money supply over a year time span,
695460	702000	which is an average life expectancy. So this money supply has been growing, it's been growing at a
702000	706520	rate that's really unsustainable even before the pandemic. And now that the pandemic has hit,
706520	713000	it's gotten even more out of control. Notable on this chart is the United States, because
713600	719820	the U.S. has the privilege of being the world's reserve currency, and that is in gray here. And
719820	725300	you can see here in 2020 that the slope of the gray line in the pandemic is even steeper than
725300	731720	that of other countries. So if we lean on the U.S. a little bit more, we see the following situation.
731720	737340	I'm looking at historical data from the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. This data is all from FRED,
737340	743620	which is the U.S. Federal Reserve's kind of warehouse of data. And there's a lot going on,
743620	747900	so I'll break it down line by line. First, if you look at the blue line, this line here is U6
747900	753080	unemployment. U6 is the broadest measure of unemployment. It counts not only people who are
753080	758440	currently actively looking for work, but also counts people who are underemployed, also people
758440	762140	part-time employed when they want to be full-time employed, and it also counts people who are so
762140	767440	discouraged from looking for work that they give up. So those three categories of people are
767440	772020	actually not counted in the less expansive U3 definition of unemployment, which is what you
772020	777680	can see in the news. But I'm plotting the more kind of accurate and expansive measure of
777680	782700	unemployment, which is U6. And that is the left scale here. So you can see it starts at zero and
782700	787460	goes to 20 percent, 40 percent on the scale. And so through history, and I'm looking at a pretty
787460	794500	long term here, 40 years of data starting in 1980, the unemployment rate kind of spiked here in the last
794500	800540	financial crisis at about 18 percent. But now if you look here at the year 20, the unemployment
800540	806200	rate has spiked even higher. It peaked at about 23 percent a couple months ago. Thankfully it's
806200	814020	gone down since then, but this is bigger than the rest the others have been. Also in response to this
814020	820740	has been the increase in the money supply. As you know, the supply of U.S. dollars is
820740	826900	controlled by a committee of people, the Federal Open Committee, and they get together and they
826900	831620	just, do we want to print more money or do we want to not print more money? And so if you can look at
831620	837240	this green curve, this is MZM money supplies, which stands for money zero maturity. That means
837740	842240	currency checking accounts, also savings accounts and money market accounts, which a lot of people
842240	847560	use kind of liquid storage savings that's denominated in U.S. It does not include the
847560	853980	certificates of deposit, which would be included in the M2 money. So anyway, the MZM money supply
853980	861000	is a more, it's a broad and also liquid, completely liquid measure of the money supply.
861380	866320	So if you look at that throughout history, of course it's hard to get a handle on how big that
866320	870740	is because it's numbering the trillions of dollars. So I normalized the MZM money supply
870740	875940	by big domestic product with U.S. And result here is on the green line. And that is using the
875940	883660	right-hand scale here. You can see that this supply has been growing steadily from 30% in the
883660	893000	Reagan era, going to about 70% in the last financial crisis. And now in 2020, it's truly taken
893000	899900	off. It's this line here that is now above 100%. So we've managed to inflate our money supply from
899900	908140	about 75% of GDP to about 100% of GDP in just a few months. Okay. So that's monetary policy,
908140	913540	which is money is there existing in the economy. There's a fiscal policy to look at. Fiscal policy
913540	920580	being the income and expenses of the federal government, which is ostensibly independent
920580	925940	from that of the monetary policy. On the bottom here, you're looking at how much money is the U.S.
925940	930680	government taking in minus how much money the U.S. government spending on a monthly basis all the way
930680	936600	back to 1980. And you can see it's kind of going back and forth, usually slightly below this 0%
936600	942340	line, meaning the usual situation is for there to be a slight deficit. You got the deficit got
942340	952240	bigger here in the last financial 2009, 2008-2009. But now fast for you, the current place and all of
952240	960660	these here have to be renormalized to accommodate just how far gone south. Now, this particular
960660	966240	might be temporary because if you're in the U.S., you probably know that usual deadline for submitting
966240	971780	taxes, which is April got postponed this year to July 15 due to the pandemic. And so for this
971780	977520	three-month period between April and July, there was no tax due, neither income tax of the year
977520	986760	2019 nor estimated taxes for Q1 of 2020. So you have to see with basically zero income coming in
986760	994420	from the IRS's point of view, that the income minus expenses would tank like this. So, you know,
994420	999920	I'm actually hoping to see that this line recovered. So hopefully now that July 15 has come
999920	1005880	and gone, hopefully the IRS has had a, you know, a bonanza of tax money coming in and this downward
1007520	1015940	spike here will be temporary because they're upward spike, if this is true, of revenue coming in.
1017320	1025200	Now, if you take the time integrated of having a budget deficit, that is, if you have a month
1025200	1029500	deficit, that's basically like you have a credit card bill coming in and you don't pay it off in
1029500	1035560	full. You pay 90% of it and 10% of it you don't, and then that grows interest. So what is the
1035560	1040620	overall balance of your credit card as it grows over time? And that is the time integrated
1041240	1046420	curve of this gray line in the bottom. And that is the top line here, federal debt as a, again,
1046420	1053080	normalized function of GDP. You can see again that it's grown quite a bit since 40 years ago,
1053080	1061480	since about 30% of GDP. And then in the financial crisis, it grew to about 100% of GDP.
1061480	1068320	Now, we're seeing the number up here. Now, this particular metric is delayed because
1068320	1072520	all of these are coming from government bureaucracies. So they're delayed by several
1072520	1078660	months as it takes much time for these aggregate statistics to get figured out.
1078660	1085680	So this federal debt to GDP black line is, you're only seeing Q1 20, which is why you have not seen
1085680	1091100	this particular line spike upwards in terms of the federal debt to GDP. But that's a number to
1091100	1100760	look at. Why is this all of grave concern? There is a interesting by Peter Bernholz. He is an
1100760	1106060	academic in Switzerland called Monetary Regimes and Inflation. And he did a study of 29 historic
1106060	1112380	instances of hyperinflation going all the way back to Roman Empire. And in 25 is 29 historical
1112380	1117980	cases of hyperinflation. The root cause of the hyperinflation was money creation on the part
1117980	1125020	of the government being used to finance government deficits. So get this curve here, you have money
1125020	1131520	creation, that's the green line spike, and then we have deficits. And that as soon as we see the
1132320	1139580	data flag period, I'm sure we're going to see that spike as well. So this is all rather concerning.
1141720	1150920	And I think given, you know, given this data, it is prudent to consider the possibility that
1150920	1157320	inflating in the future, price inflation, now not just by asset inflation, will be higher than it
1157320	1163820	has been. And if that's true, then you'll want to be considering looking at alternate sources of
1163820	1170600	scarcity. So here, economy of assets, and they're divided into six categories, physical assets.
1170900	1177160	So you have real estate, art, cash, and precious metal. And I would argue that in the COVID era,
1177160	1183240	all of these physical assets, maybe with the exception of real estate, have taken a bit of a
1183240	1188480	hit in terms of desirability because of all of the issues having to do with, you know, contamination.
1189280	1195260	You have digital centralized assets here. So that includes bank accounts, all the stuff in
1195260	1200040	the chart just been showing, the stock market, the bond market. I would say also crypto exchange
1200040	1206640	accounts. So people think they own crypto, but actually just have on a crypto exchange,
1206640	1211720	don't actually own crypto. They own an IOU from a crypto exchange, and that is a centralized
1211720	1218000	asset because the exchange itself is a centralized entity. Therefore, if the exchange goes down,
1218000	1225060	then the IOU becomes less. So I would categorize that as a centralized asset.
1225700	1231980	Now, since 2009, which is the Nakamoto white paper coming out, there's been a new option
1231980	1239820	in terms of assets, and these are digital decentralized assets. Decentralized means not a
1239820	1246640	single committee of people who can arbitrarily increase or decrease the government asset.
1246640	1253260	And if you look at the non-fungible of asset, that would be Bitcoin. And the fungible type,
1253260	1260720	the dominant leader now is Monero. So part of this talk, I'm not assuming that the
1260720	1266540	viewer is one who has been kind of thinking deeply about cryptocurrency for the last many years.
1266540	1273440	DEF CON is a pretty, you know, it's a big tent for geeks of all varieties in DEF CON, including
1274000	1278060	people who have not really been kind of living and breathing, you know, cryptocurrency for several
1278060	1287220	years. So I want to give some, I guess, high level points to take away as to why cryptocurrency is
1287220	1292680	not kind of the scammy thing I'd have heard of, but there is actually a kernel of genuine
1292680	1298220	innovation in this stuff is worth thinking about and further exploring. So I want to contrast
1298220	1302140	two types of digital scarcity. Neutralized scarcity, which is what we currently have
1302140	1307840	with fiat currencies, because after all, the U.S. dollar is currently, it's a digital currency.
1308020	1312520	When you go to your bank, they're not, you know, handwriting stuff in some ledger,
1312520	1316900	it's all computerized, obviously. And, you know, there's such a thing as online banking,
1316900	1322560	in which your USD in digital form can be limited, in a limited way, manipulated within your
1324420	1331220	online account. So the U.S. dollar is currently in digital form, but it's centralized. What that
1331220	1336720	means is access to the database, that by database, I mean, keeping track of who owns what,
1336720	1342220	that is protected, that is like moat sort of security model, in which you have the precious
1342220	1347560	database in the middle of the moat, you build this protective moat around it to defend that
1347560	1354380	database from bad actors. So there's one authoritative version of that. So this goes all
1354380	1359080	the way up to the Federal Reserve. So when a reserve comes and makes a decision that it wants
1359080	1364420	to be printing money, that it just issues a command to somebody and then somebody, you know,
1364420	1370140	click mouse button to increase the U.S. dollar money supply by, you know, in dollars. That must
1370140	1376120	be actually quite a bit of job security in that particular federal employee. The person has to
1376120	1380880	sit there at the computer and click create a billion dollars over and over on their computer.
1381300	1387800	But the point is that there's one authoritative version of USD ledger, and it just takes,
1387800	1394280	you know, at the heart of it, just one person to just change it at will. Of course, the code
1394280	1398900	behind this also is closed. So I mean, why would a bank open source its code that it's running on?
1398900	1402780	That would be ridiculous. Then you're showing, you know, basically the blueprints of the
1402780	1407980	of the joint and people who would have bad intentions. So there's a closed source
1408860	1413720	software development model in centralized security. If you're familiar with the book,
1413720	1419200	Cathedral R, actually it started out as an article and then it got expanded. This is a book
1419200	1425040	that details the kind of conflicting or contrasting ways of software development. One is the Cathedral,
1425040	1431700	that is the top-down command and control sort of Microsoft-style building of software,
1431700	1436140	which is exactly what we're looking at in the kind of bank sort of realm. And also I'd say
1436140	1440680	ethical realm, where you have a highly regulated industry. So you have specialized software
1440680	1445820	companies that kind of learn all of the rope that they have to comply with within that industry. And
1445820	1452580	then they make expensive ware that they then sell to players within that industry. So that sort of
1452580	1458980	top-down model works in industries like that. And that's in contrast to the bazaar, which is
1458980	1463860	just a whole bunch of flea market of people working and people coming and going, people
1463860	1469500	selling at will, buying at will. And that is the Linux model of software development with more in
1469500	1474400	keeping with Bitcoin and Monero. So there are downsides to this centralized security model,
1474400	1478760	even though Equitas and everyone uses it, there are downsides to it. So mismanagement,
1479520	1485280	the charts that I showed of really out-of-control growth in the money supply could be interpreted
1485280	1490740	as signs of mismanagement in fiat currency. There's also insider abuse. In other words,
1490740	1496140	if you are in a position where you have access to the database of who owns what,
1496140	1500360	there are things that can be done to abuse that. So for example, there is a case in which
1500360	1507200	the Bank of America, sorry, it was Wells Fargo, that took personal data of its own customers
1507200	1513920	to fictitiously create accounts, fake checking and savings accounts in the names of their customers.
1513920	1520220	And then they proceeded to charge fees on those accounts, which was unbeknownst to their
1520220	1528220	actual customers. So, and then, you know, really egregious violation of trust was punished with
1528220	1532540	just basically a slap on the wrist. It was like, you know, a day's process. That was the fine from
1532540	1539040	the federal regulators. So insider abuse, you have basically a protected class of middle people and
1539780	1546180	is something that is a downside of this. And finally, it's slow to improve. So if you are
1546180	1553280	in a position of middleman in a database that everyone needs access to, then, you know, you can
1553280	1558280	impose things like, we're only going to do wire transfers through Friday, you know, nine to five
1558280	1563480	during bank hours. Why would you need to improve that? Because, you know, they have to go through
1563480	1568400	you to access to the network. So, you know, what incentive is there really to try to improve your
1568400	1573980	service levels? So that's why we still have a situation in which, you know, for many,
1573980	1580020	for many, for options in fiat banking that are not the simplest level of option,
1580020	1585220	you still need to wait for somebody to show up at the branch office to get your business done.
1585500	1590040	And you'll trust this with a situation, for example, shopping where everyone can, you know,
1590040	1594920	everyone's used to shopping 24-7 on their phone with Amazon. The financial service industry has
1594920	1602240	been lagging in terms of adopting the advantages. So then if we move to decentralized security,
1602240	1608360	this is Bitcoin and Monero, then anyone can do peer-to-peer network. So as in contrast to the
1608360	1613940	situation in fiat banking, in the Monero, anyone in the world can download the Bitcoin software,
1613940	1619600	Monero software, and join their own computer to the global network of computers that is in track
1619600	1625660	of who spends, who sends what to who in this anonymy using these new forms of currency.
1626120	1631460	So anyone in the world can join this peer-to-peer network. Each node maintains its own virtual ledger.
1631460	1636300	So this is in contrast to there being just one authoritative ledger. In Bitcoin and Monero,
1636300	1641240	there are thousands and thousands of copies of the ledger sent what to who, and these copies are
1641240	1648040	distributed worldwide. The code is all open source, so anyone in the world is free to download the
1648040	1656040	source code and look at it, examine it themselves, commit themselves, run it themselves, and nothing...
1657260	1661660	this is actually a feature, it's not a bug, it's a feature, because just like in the Linux software
1661660	1668600	development world, the idea is more eyeballs on the code are going to squash more bugs than just
1668600	1673020	having a closed source version of the code in which only a few people are able to see the code.
1673020	1676540	If you have only a few people seeing the code, then the chances are that a bug
1677600	1682380	gets... could be undetected for a long time. Whereas in this decentralized security model,
1682380	1688440	it's open source, free and open software. The downsides of this new kind of way of measuring
1688440	1694880	scarcity is that it's new. So the Bitcoin white paper came out in 2008, and I guess unfortunately
1695380	1699820	it's... technically it's complicated. It's hard for people to get their heads around, like even
1699820	1705820	like, you know, elite geeks have trouble getting around like these ideas, because it's like not
1705820	1711460	only do you need a measure, a high degree of technical competence to kind of grasp the idea
1711460	1717200	of the Nakamoto white paper, you also need a certain amount of plessy in terms of not immediately
1717200	1723720	rejecting something that is foreign at first. And so those two things combined mean that adoption
1723720	1727780	is slow. I mean, it's just necessarily going to be slow. You have something that's hard to
1727780	1734260	understand and requires like a flexibility in order to accept that it might actually work.
1734700	1738880	Another side is that it's inefficient. So if every computer in this network has its own copy
1738880	1743120	of the ledger, isn't that inefficient? How are you going to figure out what the correct version
1743120	1751340	ledger is if people have disagreements about that? So I have a lot of material in this talk,
1751340	1757040	so I'm going to boil down how Bitcoin and Monero work to just one slide, and it's necessarily fast.
1757600	1765220	So if this goes too fast for any of you viewers, for example, my DEF CON keynote Monero Village
1765220	1770960	last year, we'll go through this in a bit slower detail. There are three things that we want to
1770960	1777140	take an analog of a fiat banking world and then move that to this new world centralized scarcity.
1777260	1781400	Number one, how do you have rights? That is, what do you have for account numbers?
1781640	1785800	So the analog of a bank account number is a solution to an elliptic curve.
1785800	1791560	So an elliptic curve is just an equation. It's a specific equation. It's got x's and y's in it,
1791560	1798480	just like your ninth grade high school algebra class. You have a relation relating x's and y's,
1798480	1803560	and there's only a sub of combinations of points, x and y, that satisfy that equation.
1803660	1808420	So in an elliptic curve, there is a large number of these solutions,
1808420	1814220	but they are very hard to find by brute force. So in the elliptic curve standard,
1814220	1819540	one is told not only the identity of the equation being used, but also what's called a base point.
1819660	1826420	This base point p sub b, which the x y coordinate in space is going to be a solution that you hold
1826420	1832240	will satisfy this elliptic curve. And then furthermore, given this base point, it is possible
1832240	1838280	if somebody tells you some arbitrary n, it is possible to calculate the nth solution
1838280	1844020	through the elliptic curve. So you have p sub n is x sub n, y sub n. And that is something that
1844020	1849340	anyone can calculate with a computer, given that somebody tells you an arbitrary number n,
1849340	1855460	and also that you know the base point p sub b, and also the exact form of the elliptic curve
1855460	1860660	that you're talking about. This is a one-way function, so you cannot calculate the number n
1860660	1866880	if somebody tells you the point p sub n. So this asymmetry, which is crucial to
1868600	1875880	public-private key cryptography, it's just a fact that it's very easy to go one direction,
1875880	1880920	that is to go from n to p sub n. But it's very hard. It's actually computationally infeasible.
1880920	1885920	You have to brute force guess your solutions if somebody tells you p sub n and you want to
1885920	1890880	try and recover n from them. So a natural application of this fact is to use sub n,
1890880	1896740	which is the derivable number as the public, and use n, which is derivable,
1896740	1901920	going the other way as the private key. So getting a new Bitcoin account, getting a new Monero,
1901920	1906760	what do those both really mean at the heart of it? It means picking number for yourself.
1906780	1914000	That's literally what it is. You're picking a number, which is a vast range that you can pick.
1914000	1921980	It needs to be an integer between 1 and basically 256, roughly, which is a 78 number. It's just an
1921980	1929120	unfathomably large number of combinations. It's an unfathomably large space of numbers that you
1929120	1932140	are allowed to choose from when you pick your number. But that's what you're doing. You pick
1932140	1938920	an account, you are picking a particular solution to the elliptic curve. The number is known only
1938920	1945800	to you, and the X, Y coordinates are known to everybody. So, you know, they thankfully made
1945800	1950040	steps to make it a little less geeky. Instead of sharing X, Y coordinates with people, you have
1950040	1955280	what gets converted into a Bitcoin address or a Monero address, which is thankfully less cumbersome
1955280	1962380	to use than, you know, two 77-digit numbers. But nevertheless, that's what they do.
1962700	1968600	Okay, then second is, what is the decentralized world of check writing? So now we've established
1968600	1975240	there's such a thing as private property, which constitutes having knowledge of a number.
1975640	1979500	So let's say you have an account, you've picked your number, you have your public and private
1979500	1985960	key pair, and you've gotten some funds in your account. How do you spend it? How do you write a
1985960	1991480	check? And so that is secure messaging. So of course, the public and private key that I explained
1991480	1995920	above, in addition to being used as your bank account number, it is also used as a secure
1995920	2000240	message signing. So that's one of the clever things of the Nakamoto White Paper that we're
2000240	2006440	used to thinking of public-private keys, you know, long, you know, basically, secure message
2006440	2010760	signing came long before cryptocurrency. So it came decades before. So we're used to thinking
2010760	2015220	of private and public keys as being the base of making secure message signing. What's new is that
2015220	2020340	there's a second interpretation of the public and private key in the kind of finance. It's now
2021080	2029040	ownership of funds. So forgery in this is when somebody else learns your key. If somebody else
2029040	2035320	knows your private key, then they can write check and sign it convincingly, because that's what you
2035320	2040120	need to write your signature is knowledge of the private key. So from the system's point of view,
2040120	2044900	the system doesn't know who owns what, it doesn't know who owns what from a person point of view,
2044900	2049980	it does know who owns what from a knowledge of the private key point of view. So knowledge of
2049980	2057100	private key in this system is tantamount to and itself money. Finally, once a check gets written,
2057100	2060800	and I process it, somebody's got to process the check. So in the fiat world, you write a check
2060800	2065560	unit, and then it goes into the banking system, the banking system needs to process the check
2065560	2071740	that you've written. So in the decent world, this is taken care of by a peer to peer accounting
2071740	2077940	network. Again, as I said before, anyone in the world is free to do the Bitcoin core software or
2077940	2083880	the Monero software, run their computer, and then they will be part of this accounting network.
2084140	2090440	The accounting network is run by Moss, which is simply the nomenclature used in this world for a
2090440	2096720	gossipy majority was peer to peer accountant. So world there is no boss computer, there is no
2096720	2101680	master copy of the base that says who owns what you have thousands and thousands of scattered
2101680	2107380	around the world of who owns what and nobody has a boss computer who who is to be deferred.
2107380	2112660	Instead of having a boss, they will defer to instead majority rules. So that is what
2113140	2119140	this difficult and that is what it makes network difficult for somebody to casually hack by
2119140	2124640	introducing their own various computer onto the network that does something like sends all the
2124640	2131840	Bitcoin to their own address. To make that work, in order for this transaction on your computer,
2131840	2137480	which sends money to your own account, in order for that to be accepted by the overall network,
2137480	2142320	it would have to be a majority computing power on the network that thinks that it is right and
2142320	2148560	proper for the reward to be going to the to a single person's account. And so that's the
2148560	2155000	impractical, expensive, infeasible to do. And in the game theory of this, if somebody did have
2155000	2160260	that many computers would be in their interest, instead of trying to crash the system,
2160260	2164800	crash the price of, say, Bitcoin, it would be in their interest to just join the system
2164800	2170480	and use all of this fast computing power that they've amassed to work with this is because
2170480	2175400	if you have more than 51% of the hash power, then you can get 21% of the rewards.
2176640	2183980	Key to this system is that valid blocks are rare. So a block is a kind of data. That is,
2183980	2189320	it's a it's a compilation of a certain time period of transactions that have happened at work.
2189320	2195260	These transactions get checked for validity on a micro level, that is, each of these transacts
2195260	2200300	checked for like a bounce check, they get checked to make sure that the person who wrote the check
2200300	2205160	actually had enough money to the funds, right? So that those kind of checks happen on a on a
2205160	2210880	micro level, on a macro level, when when, when 10 minutes worth of transactions, at least in the
2210880	2214820	case of Bitcoin, it's 10 minutes in Monero, it's two minutes. But when a block of transaction
2214820	2220600	into a block, it's not just copied and then written. There's a block actions that needs to
2220600	2227160	have this rare character that that data collection of blocks has a hash that is below a different
2227160	2232580	number. So a hash function, as I don't have to explain too much to a DEF CON is is a cryptographic
2232580	2238900	hash function, it takes an input of any size outputs a output of fixed size, a fixed byte
2238900	2246060	length. And this fixed byte length, the, the secrets in that fixed byte length are extraordinarily
2246060	2252280	sensitive to even bit levels in the input. So it functions basically as a signature of any input.
2252280	2259360	So usually we use hashes in a double checking that the hash that we have now is the hash that
2259360	2263800	we had at some previous time. So if you are checking the integrity of a file that you don't,
2263800	2267520	you will download the file, and then you will check the hash of what you did. And then you'll
2267520	2273100	check that hash against a published hash of what people found for the same download. That way,
2273100	2277260	you have some indicator that the file that you downloaded is indeed the same file that other
2277260	2282940	people need to upload. And by the way, of course, checking hashes is something that is do record,
2282940	2289320	it needs to be done by anyone who is downloading code from Bitcoin or Monero to run on their own
2289320	2293940	computer, you want to make sure that the client that you download, the hash of that client is
2293940	2300900	that of the of what the devs actually made. But in this case, in this case of the process
2300900	2305040	of clearing checks, that is the peer to peer network that is keeping track of who spent what
2305040	2311220	care about the actual value of that hash function. So when what comes out, it needs to have a hash
2311220	2316460	function that is a small number needs to be. And that's a rather arbitrary thing. It's like there's
2316460	2322140	no there's no intrinsic to having a low hash number. The transactions inside that block are
2322140	2328040	still as if they if the block had a high hash number, what is different is a block, any block
2328040	2332940	that has a very hash number is going to be a rare block, it's going to be very difficult to fake
2332940	2340400	that. And that is the key, it's difficult to fake, it takes and trial and error to fake that block.
2340540	2347620	And that's why a valid block needs to have a hash that is lower difficulty number. And this
2347620	2354020	difficulty number in both Bitcoin narrow gets dynamically adjusted, so that in total,
2354540	2361760	the entire network blocks will be generated new blocks rated at a on average fixed time. It's not
2361760	2367620	constant time, because the process is Poisson distributed. In other words, the the probability
2367620	2372620	per unit time new block will get created is constant. And when you have that you have Poisson
2372620	2377920	distribution of the block time distribution. Alright, so the big picture point here is that
2377920	2384980	every Bitcoin and Monero every like, I'm talking about the coin at the network, every unit of
2384980	2391660	Bitcoin and every Monero currently in existence was given initially to a miner as compensation
2391660	2396960	for helping to do the accounting work. So this is an important thing if you're new to the whole
2396960	2404820	blockchains. There is a lot of truth to this claim that just a lot of scams, a lot of like a
2404820	2410980	money grabbing in crypto. And having been in grad school at the dot-com bubble, I can say that there
2411140	2415600	are a lot of similarities to the current situation in blockchain versus the c-track there than in
2415600	2423420	the dot-com. So back then, internet was new, and normies had no idea what email was or website was.
2423420	2428560	It's hard to imagine, I know, if you're younger than a certain age, but that's what the world was
2428560	2435060	like back then. People had no idea what email was and why would somebody bother to send email when
2435060	2440200	you have the perfectly good system where you can just stick a stamp on something and send it.
2440200	2443740	Like, why would you do email? It's hard to understand now, but that was the mentality.
2443760	2448600	And along with that went kind of a gold rush in which kind of information investors
2449440	2454760	went chasing around and that had any, you know, hint of internet in it. So there was a thing
2454760	2460600	called pets.com back in the day, and their business model was to FedEx pound sacks of dog
2460600	2467700	food around to people. Their, you know, innovation here was that they use the internet, the website,
2467700	2472940	to take their pet food orders. And so that made this, you know, sexy new company and investors
2472940	2478160	actually bought that. And, you know, eventually it went bankrupt. You know, it's obvious to us
2478160	2483920	now there's a pretty boneheaded idea, but now you look today at the blockchain space and the exact
2483920	2490720	same thing is happening. It's like stupid idea plus blockchain equals sexy. And yeah, that's the
2490720	2497520	situation. So, but one way that you can quickly weed out a lot of these companies is to ask them
2498180	2503780	who gets the block reward. You might have this kind of variation of an automotive consensus on
2503780	2509720	your particular little project, but who's getting the money is getting the issuance of the coins.
2509760	2516000	And in pretty much every scammy case, you will find that the bit, the, the unit, which in Bitcoin
2516000	2521700	gets democratically did it to all of the computers that are helping secure the network. And again,
2521700	2527340	that happens in the same way in Monero. In Monero, all of the Monero currently in existence previously
2527340	2532920	given out as a reward to the distributed network of computers for which everyone has an event of
2532920	2540720	getting a piece of that pie, if you just put your computer on it. In any, in, in the vast majority
2540720	2547280	of currencies that has been subjugated and changed to quickly funnel some of that, some or all of
2547280	2555320	that money to a group of people. And it goes by various names, you know, but the, the idea is that
2555320	2561600	this reward, which goes to a decentralized miner in the case of a true cryptocurrency goes to,
2561880	2567980	a select group of people who, as you are told, have nothing but the best intentions in mind.
2568100	2573380	And they are going to spend money wisely, but history suggests that such promises should be
2573380	2581080	taken with a bit of skepticism. All right, so scarcity and bit Monero, Nakamoto consensus
2581080	2587220	synthesizes scarcity. This is what would be a Nobel prize winning in psychonomics.
2587240	2590240	But unfortunately, the Nobel prize needs to be given to an actual human.
2590240	2595040	And since Satoshi Nakamoto pseudonym, there's, there's not going to be a Nobel for the,
2595040	2602620	for the Bitcoin, but this idea that scarcity can be measured in this decentralized way,
2602620	2609020	that does not require somebody up being the centralized guru of that, of that source of
2609020	2614960	scarcity. That is a fundamentally new kernel of insight. And it's worth thinking, I think,
2614960	2619780	pretty deeply if you haven't already. So when I say scarcity and Bitcoin and Monero, that's scarcity
2619780	2624380	is sort of a broad word. So I'm specific. There are three types of scarcity that I'm about in
2624380	2629180	these decentralized currencies. Number one is at the account level. So that's property. How do we
2629180	2634720	know that there's scarcity in terms of who owns what? So that is enforced each user of that
2634720	2641520	cryptocurrency selecting, and then subsequently protecting their particular elliptic elliptic
2641520	2646620	curve solution. In other words, private key and public key pair, and then keeping that private
2646620	2652660	key private and their own personal secret. So that is how account level scarcity is used.
2652780	2658700	Aggregate level scarcity. How do we know that the total number of value units in this accounting
2658700	2664800	system is not going to run away with growth like we see in fiat? In other words, how is the macro
2664800	2670220	money supply control? Well, that is controlled at the level of the miners on the network for
2670220	2677740	the emission schedule of future duration of the money is programmed in advance. So for example,
2677740	2686100	Bitcoin, every 210,000 blocks, the reward that is given to the miner who successfully comes up
2686100	2692660	with a new block in the Bitcoin blockchain gets cut in half. And so that is known for all of
2692660	2698720	history. Basically, all of the miners in the net know what the emission schedule for new money is
2698720	2704040	in advance. So it's basically programmed in advance to all of these mining computers,
2704040	2709140	how much money is there going to be in the entire net. And that is enforced because these again,
2709140	2714920	these network of decentralized computers is majority rules. So anyone new who joins the
2714920	2721220	network is advised to go along with the majority rule set because that the blocks that they
2721220	2725000	generate are going to be accepted by their peer network, they're not going to get it.
2725000	2730940	So that is why there's disincentive for them to attempt to hack the network by putting their own
2731460	2735580	nefarious node on. That nefarious node, yes, it can join the network, but he's going to stop it
2735580	2740280	from joining the network. But once it comes up with kind of attractions and blocks that the
2740280	2744260	rest of the network thinks are fraudulent, the rest of the network will reject those
2744260	2750560	blocks coming from the nefarious node. So and it's in the interest of each individual node
2751200	2756080	joining the network to play along, to play nice. That's the part of the game theory of the Nakamoto
2756080	2761460	white paper and the brilliant way it works. Finally, third scarcity is database modification
2761460	2767480	scarcity. So in a SQL database, if you have super user privilege, you can always write anything you
2767480	2772160	want to the database at any time. So this is different in situation with a decentralized
2772160	2779880	ledger that Nakamoto census puts together. Each page that written to the database has to have a
2779880	2784980	hash that is lower than a dynamically adjusted difficulty threshold, which means you cannot just
2784980	2790660	have arbitrary write access to this, to the big database or the Monero database. You have to put
2790660	2796180	in a lot of computational power just to add one quanta of information, that is the block,
2796180	2801960	to add one block of information to this. This takes an extraordinary net effort of computing
2801960	2807780	power to do. So it's restricted in that way. And then further, since each block in the chain
2807780	2814140	contain as a check, the hash of the block that preceded. So now you have a linked list of
2814740	2821440	block, each of which has a pointer, contains the hash of the previous block, which means that not
2821440	2827400	only is there scarcity in ability to introduce new data to the database, there's basically
2827400	2833540	permanence of the, especially the older records in that database, because for somebody to fake
2833540	2837520	the database, you would have to put in an inordinate amount of computing power, more than
2837520	2855380	the GLOW currently has, to actually do a rollback of the chain. Oh, I'm seeing that there are
2855380	2865000	problems here. Well, at least I'm looking at the YouTube feed. The video looks to be okay.
2865000	2871900	I apologize for any technical issues. We do have a local recording, so at the very least,
2871900	2879300	even if the stream is not working correctly, we have a pristine 1080p version copy of this, so
2879300	2885920	it will go later. So, proceeding on. So, scarcity. What are miniatures of scarcity? Number one
2886940	2892780	is it has a code base that is not a bit fork. So, many of the cryptocurrencies that simply did a
2892780	2898360	copy-paste of Bitcoin, and then they slap some things on there, and they claim that they have
2898440	2903140	a new cryptocurrency. That is not the case. It was built from the ground up as a separate
2903140	2908400	coin code base. The elliptic curve used in Monero is different than Bitcoin. So,
2908400	2913520	Monero uses the ED2551 elliptic curve, which is different than Bitcoin. So, the fundamental
2913520	2921760	equation governing valid XY coordinators is different. So, the difference is the
2921760	2927860	indents of Monero goes down to the deepest level of cryptographic primitives. In Monero,
2928440	2934540	so, in Monero, we have a spend key, which is akin to the private key of Bitcoin. But we also,
2934540	2939200	in Monero, we have what's called the view key, which is basically a graphic subset of the view.
2939320	2945260	And the view key is what is going to be used if somebody wants to get view access to the ledger
2945260	2950080	shared around the world. So, in Monero, everyone in the world can download a copy of the ledger
2950080	2956080	for themselves, in which they can see who sent what to who. But in Monero, this ledger is encrypted
2956580	2961920	because the default position in Monero is that unless you were part of the transaction,
2961920	2966660	it's just not your business what the details of the transaction were. It's basically just how
2966660	2972960	cash works. Like imagine a system of cash that you could, you know, stick your nose to everyone
2972960	2978560	else's business around the world and be privy to the details of who gave cash to who around the
2978560	2983900	world. That's basically the system that everyone has set up. And one thing that Monero has done
2983900	2990160	is to meet a solution with its own technical stack. Another difference is the address space.
2990160	2995260	So, in Monero, the address space is 10 to the 76, roughly, whereas in Bitcoin, it's about 10 to 60.
2995260	3000740	So, this means that in Monero, the birthday problem is less of a concern than it is in Bitcoin.
3000740	3009040	The birthday problem being that if what is to get an account is to pick a number,
3009040	3016500	then make a public-private key pair out of that, then you have the problem that the random number
3016500	3021900	that you pick for your account could, by coincidence, be the same random number that's on the other side
3021900	3026120	of the world picks for their own account. And if that situation happens, then you have
3026120	3031040	two people with knowledge of the private and public key pair, and so you don't actually have
3031040	3035740	single ownership of that. There's somebody else somewhere else in the world that also can spend
3035740	3041260	your money. Obviously, that's bad. And the chance of that happening is astronomically low just
3041260	3046980	because of the astronomically high number of addresses there are in both in Monero.
3046980	3052900	But because there are another, you know, 16 zeros worth of addresses in Monero, this is going to be
3052900	3060440	16 zeros worth of zeros, even more rare and less of a concern in Monero. Next is a difference in
3060440	3065380	the emission, the minor reward schedule. So, in Monero, it's continuously decreasing. There are not
3065380	3071400	four-year happenings like we have in Bitcoin. So, the continuously decreasing
3072500	3076840	emission is, like many things, something that the Monero community has looked at
3077620	3083020	as happening in the granddaddy community, that is the Bitcoin community, and then think ways that
3083020	3089620	things could be done maybe a bit different than are done in the granddaddy, and giving all due
3089620	3096620	respect to Bitcoin. So, in Bitcoin, every four years, like I mentioned before, the block reward
3096620	3101780	that is given successful computers that add a block to the blockchain is cut in half, which
3101780	3105960	means if you're a Bitcoin miner, there's a date circled on the calendar in which the mining
3105960	3112880	reward, your mining income, is going to get in half. And so, as a result, there is a lot of
3112880	3118080	drama that happens. Like, imagine if you're doing mining as a business, then basically there's a
3118080	3123400	date that's contrary, in which your income is going to get cut in half. So, that puts in a lot
3123400	3128300	of disruption to the act of mining. And so, this is something that we avoid in the Monero community
3128300	3134320	by having a continuously decreasing miner rewards. There's also a form of unwanted scarcity, which
3134320	3141060	future miner rewards. The block reward in Monero will never be less than zero in Monero per minute,
3141060	3146760	and we call this the tail emission. Why do we have this? It is to guarantee miner incentives
3146760	3155260	perpetuity. So, in Monero, we do not have to worry about miners in the far future having no
3155260	3161360	incentive to connect their computers, spend money on electricity, devote time of their computing
3161360	3166640	power to help the Monero network, that those people will be disincentivized to join because
3166640	3172740	getting offered an insufficient reward in terms of the block reward. Now, this unfortunately gets
3172740	3177920	portrayed as being infinite inflation by people who have not either thought this through, or they
3177920	3183920	might have a vested interest in portraying it that way. But in Monero, if you think about
3183920	3189020	linear inflation, which is the case in Monero, the block reward flow will never go below 0.3
3189020	3194680	Monero per minute. In fact, it will be 0.3 Monero per minute starting in a short time, like a year
3194680	3200380	or so. So, if you think of that as a linear rate of inflation, every year there's going to be a
3200380	3205620	fixed rate of Monero that gets added. If you think of what is the impact on the inflation rate,
3205620	3211580	the inflation rate is going to be going to zero asymptotically. So over time, the inflation rate
3211580	3216520	in Monero will get lower and lower and lower, and continuously be going towards zero, but never
3216520	3221280	actually touch zero. And this is in contrast to the situation in Bitcoin, which will have
3221280	3226180	equally zero, identically zero inflation in about 100 years time.
3226880	3235720	So the distinction though between asymptotically zero inflation versus identically zero inflation
3235720	3240160	is really irrelevant from the point of macroeconomic. If you look at any macroeconomic
3240160	3246120	theory of money supply, even variable is the percentage of monetary growth per year. It's
3246980	3253880	a percentage rate. He cares that the supply of U.S. dollars is going up by however trillions per
3253880	3260140	year. You have to normalize that by the existing monies. It's the percentage inflation rate that
3260140	3266820	has any impact on macroeconomic theory. And so the reality of the situation is that far from being
3266820	3273960	quote unquote infinitely inflating, the inflation rate of Monero is asymptotically zero in contrast
3273960	3281020	to Bitcoin, identically zero. And that distinction is totally irrelevant from the point of view of
3281020	3286980	macroeconomic theory. From the point of macroeconomic theory, they're both zero.
3288380	3292240	Here is showing what I'm talking about. So this is supply emission. So you're seeing
3292920	3299520	to the left of the present, you are seeing actual data. So for the Bitcoin blockchain,
3299520	3305360	this is the actual number of Bitcoin inflation historically taken from blockchain.com. And for
3305360	3310200	Monero, what you're seeing is actual data from the Monero blockchain taken from the CLI client
3310200	3318520	as very helpful utilities to glean like system level data on things on the blockchain within
3318520	3327540	Monero. To the right, you see in faint color, the future projection, how much Bitcoin there will be
3327540	3332480	over time, how much Monero there will be over time. So again, this is like a cool thing about
3332480	3336440	cryptocurrencies, at least the ones that are legitimately set up to not be just a money
3336440	3341960	on the part of people who create them. For legitimate decentralized cryptocurrencies,
3341960	3349480	like Bitcoin and Monero, the emission schedule is designed in advance. And so you can kind of count
3349480	3354620	on that there is a, of course, nobody can predict the future with uncertainty, like maybe the
3354620	3361040	emission will not match these curves. But on the same time, you have an over 10 year history
3361040	3365220	of matching between what actually happened on the blockchain and what was supposed to happen
3365220	3371140	on the blockchain. That is due to the cooperation of this globally decentralized network by the
3371140	3380940	rules. Next, if you look at Euro supply inflation, there's a really sobering curve to look at here
3380940	3385960	with the dollar. Again, we're looking at the money zero maturity curve. We're seeing that
3385960	3394100	post pandemic, there's been an over 30%, not over, almost 30% inflation in the supply of US dollars
3394100	3399800	since then. So I'm taking the supply of the money now versus the supply of the money a year ago.
3400340	3406780	And you can see that it's truly spiked to a kind of scary level since the pandemic.
3407440	3411580	You can contrast this to the legit cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Binair,
3411580	3416120	in which in the past, the inflation rate of both of these currents been very high.
3416120	3421020	That is in order to get these coins out there to get, you're launching a new money. So we want to
3421020	3426000	get these coins out there, get them into circulation. And also incentivize miners to
3426000	3432220	get in kind of to join this network early to get in and help out like this fledgling new network.
3432280	3436460	So as a result, in the past, inflation rates within cryptocurrency have been very high.
3436780	3441300	You see, we're coming up on a new era of scarcity here. Bitcoin and Monero,
3441300	3447100	both having year over year inflates that are on the order of 3%. And by the end of 2020,
3447100	3451260	well, or if you look at a year from now, the inflation rates of Bitcoin and Monero will
3451260	3457520	actually be lower than that. So the world gold council keeps track of its estimate of how much
3457520	3462160	gold there is above in the world. And it's been doing this estimate for about 10 years now.
3462160	3467360	You plot this inflation rate, which is the inflation rate of the gold supply that has
3467360	3473360	been mined and refined and turned into bullion. So basically, this is the rate of gold bullion,
3473360	3480520	right? And that ends up being an average of about 1.8% per year. Also, as an interesting aside,
3480520	3485560	take this data from the world gold council and ask the question, is gold inflation more
3485560	3490880	consistent with exponential growth or near growth? And it turns out significantly, it's more
3491740	3497600	correlated like the, like an exponential fits the growth of the gold inflation better than
3497600	3504500	the growth curve. So this is truly, it's more supported data, the past data to say that
3504500	3508840	gold is growing all exponentially, just at a slower rate at about 1.8% per year.
3508840	3513940	So if you think of gold as money, and most people kind of view gold as the first thing they think of
3513940	3518660	when they use the phrase sound money, that was a line in the sand. So there's basically this 1%
3518660	3523700	per year line in the sand where anything to the left of that is going to be a candidate for
3523700	3529120	money. Anything to the right of that is going to be maybe more suspect in terms of a form of
3529120	3534880	store of value. And you can see that again, the future of Bitcoin and Monero, that the inflation
3534880	3541120	rate is very soon going to blow that of gold, which would, I would say, qualify both of the
3541120	3548780	candidates for being sound money. All right, there's another unwanted form of scarcity I
3548780	3553580	wanted to, that is that of mining hardware. So in the Bitcoin white paper, there's a phrase will be
3553580	3558620	you one vote. And what that means is that the idea, when a computer joins the mining network,
3558620	3562500	is that probability of getting a block reward should be roughly proportional to the
3563060	3571500	to the resources that they have dedicated towards helping the network. So in other words,
3571500	3575600	you put 10 computers on the network to help and you should get 10 times the reward of somebody
3575600	3581400	who only put one computer on the Bitcoin network. So this is fine as long as all different types of
3581400	3586660	computing device equally efficient at the mining algorithm. Fortunately, the economics of silicon
3586660	3593680	development is linearity. So in Bitcoin, mining algorithm is simple enough that it is possible
3593680	3599660	to design a custom piece of silicon that does nothing but mine for Bitcoin. The end result is
3599660	3608240	that you have, you know, $50 million to invest in a fabrication facility in Shenzhen. Then it's
3608240	3613060	possible for you to take that $50 million investment and develop with, you know, PhD
3613060	3618460	electrical engineers, a custom piece of silicon that does nothing but mine Bitcoin. A whole bunch
3618460	3624100	of those, you print out a whole bunch of those with your silicon fab. And now you have a specialized
3624100	3629500	army of computers, which you can then use to connect to the Bitcoin network and have an
3629500	3636400	advantage over all these others on the network who are using their Intel or AMD CPUs that are
3636400	3642080	not optimized to do the Bitcoin proof of work and therefore are at a disadvantage. These little guys
3642080	3649380	who are running their little CPUs now are spending much more on electricity per hash in Bitcoin
3649380	3654880	than you are with your custom piece of silicon. So this situation has been happening many years now in
3654880	3661120	the Bitcoin network. And we're at a point now, Bitcoin mining is now a Chinese dominated oligopoly.
3661360	3666160	It's not necessarily a problem that it's China that has mining power. It is a problem that it's
3666160	3671460	central. It's all in one region of the world. It's dominated by just a few people. One company
3671460	3677860	that is on top of this oligopoly. And it's actually arguably still an oligopoly. It's
3677860	3682960	moving towards monopoly status. So in the Monero community, we've looked at this and we've tried
3682960	3689840	to avoid this, having this situation in Monero. And what we've done is we've adjusted the proof
3689840	3695480	of work algorithm and evolved it to keep small indent miners viable. So unlike the situation
3695480	3700340	in Bitcoin, where the guy with just a little, you know, gaming PC that they want to, you know,
3700340	3705500	run overnight while weeping and they want to put that on the Bitcoin network. Well, somebody who
3705500	3709760	does that on Bitcoin, you're wasting your power because your chance of getting a block on one
3709760	3716900	with a CPU, it's like you have a better chance of a lotto, the Powerball. It'd be a better spend of
3716900	3722400	your money to go buy a lottery ticket to increase your power bill by putting your suit on the
3722400	3728040	Bitcoin network. That is not true in Monero. The math of the mining might, you know, it goes up
3728040	3735020	and down. It might not be like a net positive for just to put their computer on the Monero network,
3735020	3741340	but you have a magnitude higher chance of getting a payout by mining on Monero, a little guy with
3741340	3747060	commodity hardware due in Bitcoin. So to make this proof of work has in Monero changed actually
3747060	3753180	four times in 2018. And each of these proof of work changes has required a hard, hard forks
3753180	3758980	or something that you never see in Bitcoin. There have been, you know, there's been a decision
3758980	3766480	that hard forks in Bitcoin's core, in Bitcoin's, yeah, in Bitcoin core are not to be targeted because
3766480	3771700	they want to preserve backwards capability. They want miners who don't bother to
3771700	3777500	update their software to still be part of the network. Okay, well, I mean, that's their decision.
3777500	3782880	It means that something like what we've done in Monero, which is to dynamically play this game
3782880	3790020	with ASIC miners or ASIC manufacturers to reduce their impact on the Monero system, you could play
3790020	3794400	that game if you are tying your hands behind your back and saying you're not going to accept hard forks.
3795500	3800600	So here is data from the Monero blockchain that is shown talking about. So what I'm showing is
3800600	3806560	since the invention of Monero in 2014, April 2014 is when Monero started, about five years
3806560	3813860	ago. But since 2014, it's been running for over six years now. So Monero has a demonstrated
3813860	3819360	track record of over six years of operation. So initially, the proof of work algorithm was
3819360	3824300	Kryptonite, which defined in the Kryptonite white paper. But as you see, in late 2017,
3824300	3829480	there's to be a increase in the network. And what this means is that all of a sudden,
3829480	3833980	the Monero network was seeing a whole bunch of extra computing power to its mining network.
3833980	3839820	And this was interpreted as being ASICs. ASICs were in other words, people had figured out
3839820	3843900	Monero's proof of work and then designed a custom people can to do nothing but that,
3843900	3848680	then plug it in. And once they get into the Monero network, they were receiving the lion's share
3848680	3854620	of rewards to the detriment of the, you know, little guys out there who were just trying to
3854620	3860920	run Monero on their single little, you know, commodity hardware rig. So there was a lot of
3860920	3864780	alarm and just got this in the Monero community. And as a result of this,
3864780	3869500	0.12 came out of Monero, which introduced Kryptonite v2, which variant, you know,
3869500	3874760	it was just a couple numbers in Kryptonite. But it was enough to render the currently existing
3874760	3879180	ASICs operable on the old network. And so you can see when that went live on the network,
3879180	3883480	and again, that required a hard fork, which means it acquired the cooperation of the Monero community
3883480	3889620	to other nodes to run Kryptonite v2 as the new perk. And that happened. After that happened,
3889620	3895960	you can see the different nodes dived back down. So again, you had small miners with
3895960	3902760	commodity hardware being able to mine. Then a few months later, ASICs came onto the network.
3902780	3908440	So there's a lead time of several months that ASIC makers to introduce a new piece of silicon to
3909260	3915440	fruition. So that happened again. ASICs, again, spiked the difficulty level of the Monero network.
3915440	3920240	Again, we changed the proof of work to Kryptonite v3. It happened again in 2008,
3920400	3925080	a third time ASICs on the network. And then we came up with Kryptonite. So now we're changing
3925080	3930680	the proof of work in bigger and bigger increments. So Kryptonite introduced a random code execution
3930680	3935960	aspect. And for then several months, there was apparently no reaction from the ASICs,
3935960	3940340	because they also knew that the Monero community, what it said, when it said,
3940340	3944900	we didn't want ASICs on the network, and we were going to try to evolve to prevent that.
3944900	3952540	So finally, in v0.15, RandomX became the proof of RandomX is now a, it does fully random code
3952540	3960060	execution as its proof of work. And ASIC that is most eyes to do RandomX, as it turns out,
3960060	3966960	is Ryzen Threadripper CPU that you can buy on Amazon. It's not a custom Bitcoin miner that
3966960	3972600	you have to go on the express or, you know, have have connection then to be able to get
3972600	3979080	in a timely manner. So since that CPUs have been healthily dominating the network, and
3979080	3986040	all signs are so far that that has been working. And, but this is a testament to the length to
3986040	3989880	which you need flexibility in your protocol deal with these sorts of things. This is,
3989880	3995440	this is network security software and network security is always changing. And so to, to have
3996000	4000060	a attitude like we have in the Monero community, that hard forks are going to be necessary from
4000060	4005640	time to time to new improvements. And unfortunately, the nodes in the mining network
4005640	4011060	that fail to upgrade their computers, or they're just, they just gonna, they're going to miss the
4011060	4015740	train. I mean, this is a moving train, there's new technology going, and they're going to miss it.
4015740	4021220	And so that's the decision that's been made in Monero, or it's been working. There's another
4021220	4025480	form of unwanted scarcity and that access to layer one. So Bitcoin's one megabyte block limit
4025480	4031100	has caused a project. There was a line of code in the Bitcoin code base that Satoshi
4031100	4037160	has a spam prevention measure. So the network was going to end in the early days of Bitcoin. So
4037160	4044640	Satoshi wrote that the maximum size of a new block could only make a byte. And so the question,
4044640	4049520	you know, should we move this came up several years ago when interest in the Bitcoin was growing
4049520	4055020	and the transactions were growing and coming up against that one megabyte limit. So basically a
4055020	4059780	civil war happened within Bitcoin to fight over whether this should be retained or not. And yes,
4059780	4064960	of course, I'm well aware that one of the sides adopted SegWit, which kind of effectively
4064960	4069860	increased the block limit to 1.3 megabytes. Although, you know, that extra 300 kilobytes
4069860	4074980	in this big scheme of things, you know, it's like a, it's not that big. Anyway, you have one side
4074980	4078840	in Bitcoin that wanted to stick with this and the other one didn't. And then the one that didn't had
4078960	4085840	a further divorce. So you basically have, you know, a lot of animosity in the larger Bitcoin
4085840	4091300	community using, when I group all the forks together, it's not really a key because they
4091300	4098280	really don't play well together. And even though they've had a divorce and separate blockchains
4098280	4103460	with separate assets at this point, there's still a lot of hate going on still to this day. If you
4103460	4110220	want to join, you know, Bitcoin as a person to contribute, you have to, you know, make your
4110220	4115700	loyalty very early on. Are you loyal to Bitcoin Core or Bitcoin Cash or Bitcoin SV? You have to
4115700	4121820	make that decision. And once you're in, that's your, that's your camp. That's your, in Monero,
4121820	4126400	there is just one team. And I think that the reason for that is that the goal of the project
4126400	4132420	is more easily defined. It is to be private, digital, fungible cash that takes all of the
4132420	4139460	goodness of Bitcoin that is the centralized nature. It's not having a committee or a company
4139460	4146520	behind, being a totally grassroots effort, just like Bitcoin is, but add integrability to it.
4147320	4151800	So in Monero, we have one adaptive block weight. It used to be called the adaptive size, but then
4151800	4157000	it got, the algorithm got changed and upgraded. So the adaptive block weight. But the basic idea
4157000	4162480	is that the, instead of having a hard-coded limit on the size of new blocks, in Monero,
4162480	4167640	the limit is going to dynamically expand and contract to kind of organically reach that of
4167640	4175240	the underlying demand for Monero transactions. So there's a disincentive that kicks in if a miner
4175240	4180360	chooses to make a block that's big, but also user fees increase if the blocks are big. So
4180360	4186180	if there's a lot of, if there was a sudden crash in Monero for transactions based, then there's
4186180	4190480	going to be an increase in the user fees to help make up for the fact that I'm not going to be
4190480	4198300	disincentivizing it, less of a reward from coin emission. So as you can see, putting the system
4198300	4204800	into practice, you can see that overall the trend in Bitcoin transactions per day has been roughly,
4204800	4211180	I would say for the last say five years, if you look back to say 2016, then you can see that
4211180	4215220	there's been a limit here, an asymptotic limit of transactions per day that have been happening
4215220	4221600	in Bitcoin. Look at the recent history of Monero, you can see basically an uptrend line here. It
4221600	4225060	doesn't look like much of a trend line, but you have to, this is an exponential scale that I'm
4225060	4230980	showing here on the vertical axis, which means basically in the last four years or so, between
4230980	4236800	now and say 2017, so like a little under four years, there's been almost effect on increasing
4236800	4242100	the transactions per day. So it's been growing. It's been organically growing. There's nothing
4242740	4249380	artificially limiting growth in the Monero blockchain like an arbitrarily sized block limit.
4250660	4256680	All right, so moving on then to the difference between transparency and fungibility. Bitcoin
4256680	4262200	is transparent. If you are new to cryptocurrency, you have kind of read all these news articles,
4262200	4266980	which of course mature the details of what's going on all the time in the popular press,
4266980	4272760	you might be under the false impression that Bitcoin is a very secretive currency, that
4272760	4277380	once you're trending Bitcoin, nobody knows what you're doing. Nothing could be further from the
4277380	4283040	truth. It itched to get itched forever for all to see. Every transaction, you have the sender,
4283040	4289220	the receiver, and the amount. Those are in plain text in every Bitcoin block specified in the
4289220	4293980	Bitcoin white paper. It's all there. You can see the transaction is in plain text. Every address
4293980	4300620	is encoded in the blockchain in plain text, which means it's trivial to code up what's called a
4300620	4305940	block explorer. You go to these block explorers and you type in anyone's address. It doesn't have
4305940	4309600	to be your address. It can be anyone in the world's Bitcoin address that you type in,
4309600	4314580	and it'll instantly spit out for you how much money does that account have,
4316240	4321900	who did that send money to or receive money to for its complete history, all the way back to the
4321900	4326360	miner who initially mined that Bitcoin. So it's as if you have a dollar bill, and on the back of
4326360	4330980	that $10 bill, you have a nice list showing everyone in history who owned that $10 bill
4330980	4337200	before you. So it went to a bunch of people, then all the way back to the mint. So what possibly
4337200	4341680	could be the downside consequence to a system like that? And actually, in Bitcoin, it's even
4341680	4346500	worse than a piece of cash that has it on the back of it. Because at least if this list were
4346500	4351140	written on paper on the currency bill, then it would be only you who could see that list at any
4351140	4358060	time. But as in Bitcoin, everyone in the world has access to that complete history of every Bitcoin
4358060	4364540	for every single Bitcoin in existence. This puts innocent people and businesses at risk.
4365180	4371260	Not only is there the risk that key clean innocent people can become victims of crime,
4371260	4375940	because it is possible for anyone in the world to look at their address and see how much money
4375940	4382520	they have. And therefore, for nefarious people to assess their credits before they go after them.
4382700	4387300	There's also an even more pernicious effect that putting innocent people at jeopardy
4387300	4393180	is that reputation trend in Bitcoin as well as value. So because every coin is traceable back
4393180	4398000	to there, this invites voyeurism. Like I mentioned, it's possible to up anyone's bank account
4398000	4404160	in Bitcoin at any time. But it also promotes guilt by association. Because if you have knowledge of
4404160	4410840	who sends money to who, and then somehow figure out who, like faces that correspond to these
4410840	4416200	Bitcoin addresses, and furthermore, you have known, quote unquote, bad people in the network
4416200	4422540	who are in transact Bitcoin, then you can connect the dots. Basically, you can come up with a
4422540	4428320	hypothesis that people who have transacted coin with known bad actors are themselves
4428320	4434140	more likely to be bad. So what ends up happening is that really transparent data that is in
4434140	4442420	in blockchain, combined with the ever-growing mass of metadata that links specific coin addresses to
4442420	4448020	the identities of names and people, that grows, you have what constitutes a social credit score
4448020	4453900	within Bitcoin. So we in the West, we tend to look at this news of social credit score in China and
4453900	4458800	kind of shake our heads at it and say, wow, that's just horrible that they tell this,
4459280	4463980	you know, this data of who your friends are, who you choose to interact with,
4463980	4469980	and then deliver consequences, either good or bad at behavior. Wow, that's just awful that they do
4469980	4475740	that in China. And then people sign up for Bitcoin accounts in which the exact same is happening.
4475740	4480820	So the transparency of the Bitcoin network is being used again to formulate these social credit
4480820	4485580	score networks. And there are companies that specialize in nothing but this. There are chain
4485580	4491880	analysis companies that will assign basically a social credit score to every Bitcoin address that
4491880	4499040	exists. So there's a guilt by association that is introduced at the human level. This has nothing to do
4499040	4503920	with the technical level. And so it's a reason why those people in Bitcoin who tend to see things
4503920	4511460	as just technical things and ignore the social human aspect will discount this. Because, oh, well,
4511460	4517120	they're censorship resistant Bitcoin. Nobody can possibly stop a Bitcoin transaction happening.
4517120	4521740	Yes, that's true on a technical level. But if you have a situation where certain Bitcoin
4521740	4528740	addresses are basically hot potato, they're like pariahs, they're bad people that aren't supposed
4528740	4534520	to be dealt with. Then on a social level, there are consequences to certain addresses that are
4534520	4539920	transacting in Bitcoin as opposed to us. So this technical censorship resistance that happens
4539920	4546180	on an IP on a data sort of level gets destroyed at a human level, at the actual societal level,
4546180	4552260	because the chain is completely transparent. In contrast to this, Monero is fungible. There are
4552260	4556220	three technologies in Monero that combine to promote this indistinguishability. There's ring
4556220	4560700	signatures that protect the sender's identity, stealth addresses that protect the receiver's
4560700	4566760	identity, and RingCT that keeps the amount sent private. Now, original Monero white paper,
4566760	4571120	the CryptoNote white paper, had specifications for the first two of these three technologies
4571120	4574500	for rings and stealth addresses, but it did not mention RingCT. That was a new
4574500	4580160	innovation that happened after Monero went live. And so, again, this is another example
4580160	4585040	of the attitude within Monero, which is no compromises. We are going to do what is best
4585040	4589660	to make the best fungible currency possible. That includes doing hard forks, and that includes lots
4589660	4595720	of research, coming up with new stuff, and putting the best that we have out there. So
4596500	4601440	RingCT required original cryptographic research on the part of a research lab. We're talking about
4601440	4608860	like post-doc, PhD-level cryptography with mathematicians. We have those working with us
4608860	4613720	in Monero. Furthermore, you needed coders, like developers, software developers, who could
4613720	4618200	understand higher-level math that was being discussed and then put that implementation in code
4619220	4624180	and also have kind of wisdom to realize that there might be bugs in this. And so maybe it'd be a good
4624180	4629880	idea to pay independent parties to do an external audit of any new code that gets in Monero. That
4629880	4633380	happened with Monero, and it's happened on a routine basis for all major innovations that
4633380	4638080	have happened within Monero, including RingCT, and there have been four or five in the last few years.
4638300	4642300	And then finally, you need a community that has a commitment to actually implementing the stuff
4642300	4648260	that gets out from the research and the development phases. So you have a community of people running
4648260	4654360	Monero on their own computers. They stay with the program. They have their ears to the ground.
4654360	4658860	They know, they're aware that there's such a thing as RingCT coming up, and then they implement it.
4658860	4664220	They do the hard work to make it happen. So this, again, is showing some data that's comparing some
4664220	4669780	data between the Bitcoin and Monero blockchains to show how fungible scarcity has been made better
4669780	4674160	in Monero and its history. So here on top, I'm showing the average bytes per transaction.
4674820	4680420	That is, on Bitcoin, it's been pretty constant. Again, there's been this attitude in Bitcoin that
4680420	4685040	be very conservative. They don't want to make many changes to the code because that there's
4685240	4690340	a whole lot of money being entrusted on their network. Whereas, of course, if you look on a
4691380	4696340	global scale, you zoom out a little bit, you know that Bitcoin is just like a tiny,
4696340	4705480	bug-sized in a land of dinosaurs. The existing fiat monetary infrastructure dwarfs Bitcoin.
4705480	4712940	And so one can question whether the attitude of, oh, we are trusted with such a huge amount of
4712940	4717980	money. We have to be super conservative and not introduce anything that could rock the boat.
4717980	4721480	Is that really the right attitude to take for something that is an upstart?
4721920	4726040	Nevertheless, that's been the kind of ethos within Bitcoin. And you can see that the daily
4726040	4730880	average byte per transaction is pretty constant over time, over its history. In contrast with
4730880	4738620	Monero, it's been quite a bit of a story that is encoded in this that shows the size in bytes of
4738620	4743240	average trend in Monero. In the early days of Monero, there were limited outputs. And what
4743240	4748260	that means is you can envision there's like a one Monero, a two Monero chunk, a three Monero chunk,
4748260	4754520	and tens, 10, 20, 30, 100, 200, 300, and then going the other way, so 0.1s or 0.2s or 0.3s.
4754520	4761400	There are these discrete units, little globs of Monero that were used as kind of the nugget of
4761400	4767620	the money supply. So if somebody in the early days of Monero to send, say, 123 Monero to somebody,
4767620	4772440	then you would have to come up, round around in your wallet, in your cryptocurrency wallet,
4772440	4777840	to come up 100 Monero bill, a 20 Monero bill, and a three Monero, and put those together,
4777840	4781400	and then make a transaction that would send those out to the desired recipient.
4781880	4787220	There are problems with this because one could see in those early days of Monero that a 100
4787220	4792800	unit got sent, a 20 Monero unit, and a three unit Monero, like the values of those denominators
4792800	4800940	all were seen. So if somebody did a 123 Monero, and then three days later another trend showed up
4800940	4809100	that also moved 123 Monero, then you could have a pretty educated guess that those two transactions
4809100	4815720	were related somehow. So when RingCT came out and it was researched, it was quickly enabled,
4815720	4822020	even though it wasn't, that the transaction size would inflate by order of magnitude. So when RingCT
4822020	4826760	was enabled, you can see here in early 2017, it was enabled and not mandated, and yet you see that the
4826760	4831240	transaction sizes jumped way up, and that is because people in the Monero community actually
4831240	4838160	did tend to use RingCT because it was a better technology. Then in 2017 RingCT became
4838160	4843960	mandatory. So you could see that there's this situation for about two years, almost two years,
4843960	4849660	in which transactions in Monero were almost three orders of magnitude larger than in Bitcoin. So you saw
4849780	4855820	a lot of chatter in the crypto Twitter and the crypto press that Monero transactions
4855820	4861120	are gigantic and how could you possibly scale this kind of system. And you still see
4861120	4867480	objections to this to this day. Even this problem was mitigated to a large extent late 2018 when
4867480	4872180	Bulletproofs came around. Bulletproof was a new cryptographic advance that the Monero research
4872180	4878380	left with, and again it went through the same process of coding, external audit, and after the
4878380	4884220	audit came back by several independent audits that the code was legit, the research was legit,
4884220	4888780	it went into the Monero network, and you can see the effect of Bulletproofs was to reduce the
4888780	4894020	transaction size of RingCT transactions by more than an order of magnitude, while keeping the
4894020	4899280	same cryptographic guarantee that the sum of the inputs was the sum of the outputs.
4900700	4908540	Okay, so at that point then the transaction size went down, and as you can see in Monero,
4908540	4913380	since the transaction fee is a function of transaction size, the transaction fee also
4913380	4918860	took an order of magnitude reduction in late 2018 when Bulletproofs went live on the system.
4918860	4924840	So you can see since, you know, fall of 2018, transactions on Monero have been at the one penny
4924840	4931260	level instead of the the dollars level. And coming up in Monero, there's even more research
4931260	4935100	coming down the pipeline. That's CLs, which is a new innovation, it's a new optimization
4935640	4940700	that was noted by Dr. Soren Noether of the Monero Research Lab, in which he noticed that there was
4940820	4947100	a further efficiency gained for zero, for a negative computational cost, and if space being
4947100	4952860	taken up retroactively for even trends that have happened in the past. So what we're going to see
4952860	4957980	when CL sags in October 2020, and again CL sags went through the same audit process, there was an
4957980	4963360	external audit process that just completed, actually which my consulting was, had the
4963860	4969920	pleasure of contributing to financially. After that audit came back positive, now it is set,
4969920	4974880	it is being worked on for inclusion in the Monero hard fork coming up on mid-October of this year.
4974880	4978300	And once that happens, you're going to see daily average bytes per transaction.
4978840	4984340	Step down. It's a more modest step down than bullet, but you can see that the direction is
4984340	4989420	that the transaction size between Monero and Bitcoin is shrinking. It's shrinking that's due
4989420	4997120	to sustained effort on the part of the Monero community to not only recognize innovation,
4997120	5001160	but also support its development, actually implement the innovation when it comes through.
5002360	5007300	All right, there's a Nobel Prize winning paper in the used car market that I talk about, because
5007300	5015580	this really hits home why it is that key clean people need Monero. People with nothing to hide
5015580	5021420	actually need Monero. And the basis comes from this paper from the 1970s from George A. Kellogg,
5021420	5025480	again won the Nobel Prize in economics for this insight, on asymmetric information.
5026160	5030740	So here's what his paper talks about, the used car market. Now there are two types of used cars
5030740	5035740	in this paper. There are lemons, lemons are the bad cars which break down and nobody wants to
5035740	5040900	own them like those who are involved in a flood or hurricane or something like that. Now they're,
5040900	5046980	you know, problem cars. On the other hand, peaches, peaches are the good used cars, which were taken
5046980	5052400	care of by their owners. Now sellers, which type of car they have, they know whether they're selling
5052540	5056780	a lemon, and they know if they're selling a peach. You know, if your car has been involved
5056780	5061260	in a hurricane, know that you will have seen your car sitting in four feet of water. And now you
5061260	5065600	decide that you want to try and sell your car because it's been in four feet of water. So but
5065600	5069700	before you do that, you make sure that the paint job on your car is extra shiny and clean because
5069700	5075760	you want it to superficial look good. Superficial good looks are also going to be there for the
5075760	5080780	peach seller. But in contrast to the lemon seller, the peach seller has been busy, you know, keeping
5080780	5085400	their car in a garage and doing the oil changes all the time and so on. They've been taking,
5085400	5091180	you know, top care of their car. Now buyers come to this market and they can't sell apart lemons
5091180	5097200	from peaches. But they know that they're ignorant. They know there are both bad cars in the market
5097200	5102060	and there are good cars in the market. And there is a probability that as a used car buyer, you
5102060	5106940	are going to end up with a lemon. You'll do everything you can to try to reduce your level
5106940	5112760	of ignorance to, you know, the condition of any given used car. But at the end of the day, you
5112760	5118280	don't know what happened to that car before you owned it. So you have to, you can't discount the
5118280	5122860	probability that you're going to get a lemon. So what is a buyer going to do when they faced with
5122860	5128740	this situation, when they are relatively ignorant with the buyer as to the condition of the goods
5128740	5134680	that they're buying? The buyer is going to make an offer price for the purchase of a car, and that's
5134680	5139560	going to be equal to the lemon price. Because after all, the lemon price is the minimum price a car
5139560	5143920	could be worth. So they're going to offer at least that. And then on top of that, they're going to
5143920	5150080	offer a bit more. And the bit more part is going to be contingent on what the buyer perceives as
5150080	5155100	being the probability that the buyer is going up with a peach or a lemon. So here, offer price
5155100	5161460	equals lemon price plus the perceived peach probability or likelihood multiplied by the
5161460	5166020	price difference between a peach and a lemon. So if you think there's a 100% chance that you're
5166020	5169620	going to get a lemon, you're going to offer the lemon price. If there's a 100% chance that you're
5169620	5175140	going to get a peach, you would offer the lemon price plus the peach price minus the lemon, which ends up being
5175140	5180540	the peach price. And then if you have a probability of getting a peach that's less than a percent,
5180540	5184540	then you adjust your price accordingly. This is just very rational. It's what a rational do
5184540	5190580	when faced with a probability of getting something of inferior quality, and they are ignorant as to
5190580	5193860	which they're going to get, but know that there's a probability that they're going to get either a
5193860	5199340	good one or a bad one. So now let's offer that's coming from the buyer and look at it from the
5199340	5202500	seller's point of view. And again, there are two types of sellers. There are lemon sellers and
5202500	5206160	there are peach sellers. The lemon sellers are going to look at this offer and they're going to say,
5206160	5214280	wow, this sucker here is offering me almost a peach price because they think that there's a
5214280	5220620	90% chance they're going to get a peach. I'm selling them my lemon. So let me act like I'm
5220620	5225480	going to hum in high and be very on the fence about this, but on the inside, I'm jumping with
5225480	5231000	joy because I'm about to dump lemon and sell it to this sucker who is on me almost a peach price
5231000	5235620	for it. So basically when this offer is to a lemon seller, they say, okay, offer accepted.
5236060	5241680	That same offer when heard by the ears of a peach seller is not quite attractive.
5241680	5246360	So basically the peach seller has been doing all the maintenance, all the work to keep their car
5246360	5253760	nice and clean. And here comes this idiot, this greedy buyer who is too stupid to understand
5253760	5262540	that this peach is selling a pre-moped. It is worth every penny that is being advertised for,
5262540	5268780	which is the peach price. And yet this guy comes to you and in spite of all of the evidence
5268780	5273080	that you provide, been doing a great job of upkeeping that car, you still get lulled because
5273080	5277160	they're still afraid that they're going to get a lemon. So the tendency is for sellers to say,
5277160	5281480	no, thanks. I am not going to accept your offer. I'm going to keep my used car because it's worth
5281480	5286040	quite a bit to me. I'll just drive until it, you know, until it stops working. And in fact,
5286040	5290520	that's what you see in real life. Peach sellers disengage from the used car market.
5290640	5296760	And what happens when the peach sellers disengage from the market is that now the fraction of lemons
5296760	5303060	being sold goes up. Because the fraction of lemons now is higher than it used to be,
5303060	5308960	the buyers get wind of that, wise to that fact. And when they adjust their probability of getting
5309220	5314680	a lemon to be higher, now they're going to lower offer price. And so the key insight of the
5314680	5318600	paper is that you have this race to the bottom. You have the situation of a negative feedback
5318600	5322900	loop in which the people buying used cars, because of ignorance, because of their fear of getting
5322900	5328680	burned, they are going to continually lower their offer price as more and more evidence comes in,
5328680	5334960	that it's only lemons that there are likely to buy in the market. Meanwhile, as the offer price
5334960	5340360	going down and down and down, the peach sellers become even more likely to leave the market.
5340360	5346400	As buyers are increasingly unwilling to pay a peach price they know to be a peach, the peach
5346400	5350340	sellers are going to disengage from that market and withdraw from it and keep there. They're just
5350340	5355360	not going to participate in that market. So this conclusion in the Akerlof paper that what
5355360	5362540	you end up with is a market of used cars 100% lemons. Let's look at this and apply it to two
5362540	5368940	applications. So first is DEF CON safe mode, what we're doing right now. So if you think of used car
5368940	5372640	status, you think of the used car market, and instead of the car market now we're going to have
5372640	5380360	the market for social interaction, right? So a healthy person is a peach. A healthy person is
5380360	5385840	faced with this decision of wanting to go to DEF CON this year and have a sweet time because it's
5385840	5391020	this, you know, the geeks taking over Las Vegas for a few days and that is just super cool because
5391020	5395880	usually it's not geek taking over Las Vegas. And you know, I want to go and I want to make new
5395880	5400240	friends. I want people who are into the same stuff I am. I want to learn about new stuff I hadn't
5400240	5405580	known about before. That's a graceful marketplace that I in the past have been to get into. That's
5405580	5409360	the social marketplace that we're talking about instead of the used car market. And you as a
5409360	5415000	healthy person, you are a peach seller. You have a healthy body so that's like a peach, right?
5415000	5420380	What is your chance of returning home from DEF CON having bought a lemon? That is, what is your
5420380	5426520	chance of going to DEF CON and then come back home having contracted a virus that spread around
5426520	5432340	in a global pandemic? It's a probability that you have to assess. And just like the buyer in the
5432340	5437280	used car market, there's a lot of unseen behind that probability assessment. There's a lot of
5437280	5441720	subsidy, you know, different people will come to different conclusions on what that probability is
5441720	5447220	and different people come to different conclusions on the negative kind of value of the consequence
5447220	5453420	if you do end up with a lemon, right? But the end result is that in the marketplace of social
5453420	5459720	interaction, just like in the used market, there is now high uncertainty as to what the value is of
5459720	5464680	the social interaction product that you're buying convention. What is the value of that? It could be
5464680	5469680	positive like it has been in most DEF CONs where you come from DEF CON with a lot of new friends
5469680	5475540	and a lot of new knowledge or be highly negative because you come home with the same knowledge and
5475540	5482760	stuff but with the virus. So that kind of dampens the value of the fun geeky fun you had during
5482760	5489960	DEF CON. So in that situation, it is a rational decision for a peter, in other words, a healthy
5489960	5495620	person to decide not to interact with the marketplace for social interaction, at least
5495620	5502160	for this year. And thus you have DEF CON safe mode. By this to transparency coins or surveillance
5502160	5507840	coins as I like to call them. So these are coins such as in which the complete history of who owned
5507840	5513920	what is known to everybody. And because of this, there is this unfortunate tendency for people
5513920	5520660	trying to come up with a transaction graph that draws lines from who sent money to everyone else
5520660	5525800	in this in this situation. And unfortunately, they're going to come up with false positives.
5525800	5533040	So let's say we have a squeaky clean person who is buying a car, choose another car example.
5533040	5539220	So a clean person is buying or selling their car to somebody to a stranger. So they they
5539220	5546420	advert a car on Craigslist. And then they make a deal, a stranger shows up, they have, let's say,
5546420	5554200	for example, Bitcoin. And then so the car and the Bitcoin change hand. And as is, as is usual in a
5554200	5559180	car transaction, as long as the whoever is selling the clean title to the car, it doesn't matter. You
5559180	5564680	don't have like a deep biographical inquiry on the idea of the of the seller of the car, you don't
5564680	5569580	have to go check their, you know, credit history, or they're, they're not the higher, you know,
5569580	5574060	private investigator to do a background check on this seller of the car, or investigate whether
5574060	5578680	they got enough as a child, and are likely to be a, you know, a sociopath. Now, you don't kill that
5578680	5583540	you just know that they have clean title to a car. And so Bitcoin and a clean title to a car now
5583540	5588640	changed. Unbeknownst to the squeaky clean person in this transaction, the other person in the
5588640	5594040	transaction, the counterparty was a bad actor. And so now as a result of there's a Bitcoin
5594040	5599280	transaction that has taken place between squeaky clean and bad person. Now the people are doing
5599280	5604220	blockchain analysis from far away from somewhere else, you know, somewhere on the other side of the
5604220	5610400	world, they come to the false conclusion then that the squeaky clean person is involved in the same
5610400	5618420	nefarious business that the bad person is. If they make that wrong call, do they have any bad
5618420	5624680	consequence when the innocent guy gets investigated? And all of a sudden the innocent guy finds their
5624680	5629980	cryptocurrency accounts being used. And maybe they get a visit from law enforcement asking,
5629980	5635140	what happened to this? Why did you spend this Bitcoin? Why did you get this Bitcoin from selling?
5635140	5639180	And then you try to explain that it was a car and you had no idea who this other person was. They
5639180	5644920	had clean title to their car. Isn't that all you need to know? Now that misunderstanding happens.
5644920	5649420	Is this analyst of the blind doing blockchain analytics? Is that analyst going to be held
5649420	5654940	responsible for the disruption to the innocent person's life? No, they are not going to be held
5654940	5661060	for that. The innocent person has no recourse in a situation like that. And so we have a situation
5661060	5667240	that in transparent chains, squeaky clean people are now the peach owners. And they're deciding
5667240	5673740	whether or not they want to interact in an ethic system that makes a social link between people who
5673740	5680700	are actually extorting money for services at arm's length. And so you have a squeaky clean reputation
5681390	5686400	and you are with the choice, do I want to engage with this situation, which could mix up
5686400	5692380	my reputation with that of somebody else? Just like the peach seller in the Akerlof paper, your
5692920	5698020	logical conclusion is going to be no. No, thank you. I would not like to take this that my good
5698020	5703320	reputation is going to be besmirched due to some some analyst somewhere in the world
5703320	5709520	coming up and connecting the dots in a wrong way. I am not willing to have my life suffer
5709520	5716060	as a result of somebody else's social miscalculation. So that is going to be the reason why
5716800	5721280	squeaky clean people are going to disengage with such a system and go to a system where their
5721280	5728480	reputation protected, like in Monero. So Monero is cryptocurrency safe mode. It is what Bitcoin
5728480	5738100	noobs think bot. It is sound money in safe. All right, so I have a few minutes. I'm psyched about
5738100	5743200	that because usually I put out any sort of price charts is actually part of the like the
5744440	5748820	ethos of Monero is that people don't talk about money. One of the great things about it is that
5748820	5756220	people discourage talking about it. In time, you know, it is in a time of history in which it is
5756220	5763880	prudent for people, like in my personal opinion, to consider again the likelihood that fiat currency
5763880	5769980	in the future, the far future or perhaps even future, could be going through a period of
5769980	5775500	inflation that the magnitude which we are not accustomed to seeing, at least in the Western
5775500	5782720	world. So in that context, what is one thing that one can do to protect oneself if one has its to
5782720	5788820	save in such a high inflation environment, and that is going to be to look at sources of scarcity that
5788820	5795800	are not really the fiat system. And again, these are going to be things like gold. And since 2009,
5795920	5802820	a couple of digital alternatives to gold, be Bitcoin and Monero. So here I'm showing how have
5802820	5808520	the prices evolved since 2009, which is when the Bitcoin Y came out. And I think this is really the
5808520	5815360	only price chart that anyone, most people, almost everyone should be looking at. I'd zoom into what
5815360	5819700	happened to the price in the last week or the last month, or even the last year, looking at the last
5819700	5826500	11 years. And I'm looking at a vertical that is logarithmic. So we have one penny up to $10,000.
5826500	5833560	So this is like, obviously, it's like a life sort of scale, and one is involved in the assets that
5833560	5839920	are changing value at this rate. You hear that the traditional fiat investments have
5839920	5845940	looked like basically very, they look basically like lines. And all of the drama that you see
5845940	5850820	from virtual news about the stock market, you know, going up, having a super fantastic day,
5850820	5857520	went up 5%, or, oh, my gosh, you know, the stock crashed yesterday and went 7%. And all these sort
5857520	5863640	of alarm bells are ringing at the stock exchange. These shows like little tiny pixel-sized blips
5864180	5870400	plotted on this scale, right? Similarly, with gold, gold looks pretty throughout the history.
5870400	5877380	But if you look at these new digital assets, so basically, as realization sinks in,
5877380	5882920	that there is something generally innovative about these assets. You have seen adoption come
5882920	5889120	in at first like a hardcore geek community, but then that kind of to broaden out over time. And
5889120	5897320	so you've seen this growth in the asset values. If you look at monthly returns of these various
5897320	5904100	asset classes since the inception of Monero, then actually, if you might not realize this,
5904100	5908640	you've only been looking at Monero prices for the last, say, year or two. But on average,
5908640	5914060	average return from Monero on a monthly basis is higher than that of Bitcoin since Monero's
5914060	5919380	inception. So we're talking a geometric average return of 5.2% per month versus 0.04% per month.
5919460	5924300	And again, these dwarf the monthly returns that are coming from more traditional assets like gold,
5924300	5929120	U.S. equities, bonds. Although that higher return in Monero has been at the expense of higher
5929120	5934560	standard deviation. So there's been more knowledge up and down of Monero relative to that of Bitcoin
5934560	5942260	in the past. One thing that especially intuitional investors find to be important is that of asset
5942260	5947900	questions. So when putting a portfolio together of several different asset classes to look at,
5947900	5953340	do the ups and downs of each of these assets, do they go up and down in concert together,
5953340	5958180	or do they actually cancel each other out? And it's desirable to have things that partially
5958180	5963480	each other out because then on average, your portfolio will have a lower average volatility
5963480	5969020	because part of the components of your portfolio will be canceling each other out when it comes to
5969020	5974000	the short-term ups and downs of it. So here I'm showing a cross-section matrix of Monero,
5974000	5980340	Bitcoin, gold, stocks, and U.S. bonds. And you can see that compared to the traditional assets,
5980340	5985160	that is gold, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, correlation, historical monthly correlation,
5985160	5991000	actually these are historical weekly correlations have been very low, 0.45 for gold, 0.05 for
5991000	5998560	stocks, and 0.02 for U.S. bonds. It has been somewhat correlated to Bitcoin, and I say that
5998560	6002940	is primarily due to it being still early days in crypto. It's like the dot-com stuff I was
6002940	6008460	talking about. People are still, I would say, ignorant as to how this stuff actually works.
6008820	6016460	And rather than have a actual understanding of how, say, Bitcoin works, they use instead of a
6016460	6020180	de-technical and kind of social, societal understanding of how the system actually works,
6020180	6024780	use their buddy network. They say, oh, this person and that person and this person. They
6024780	6029540	build an echo chamber to try and determine the validity of something because they are
6029540	6035240	unable or unwilling to take the time for it to sit down and learn all these details of
6035240	6041960	elliptic curves and so on. So as a result, all the currency tends to get lumped together as
6041960	6047280	one kind of big asset from people unable to distinguish between legitimate projects like
6047280	6054920	Bitcoin and Monero and those that are far less convincing in the decentralized flow of
6054920	6058300	minor rewards that are being given out to the network.
6059740	6064500	So again, the chart that I showed was showing the unit prices. So what is the price of one
6064500	6070140	Bitcoin? What is the price of one ounce of gold? And so on. That made it difficult, though, in
6070140	6075200	the terms of trying to figure out if crypto is currently overvalued or undervalued because
6075200	6081180	it's arbitrary. An ounce is an arbitrary unit for gold. We're not talking about the price of one
6081180	6086660	metric ton of gold or about the price of a gram of gold. Those are equally valid. I mean,
6086660	6094220	it's just a mass that you have. So it's more, I think, instructive to consider what is the value
6094220	6098620	of all the gold in the world. And let's compare the value of all the gold in the world to the
6098620	6103000	value of all the Bitcoin in the world and all of Monero in the world. So here's what I'm showing
6103000	6109000	here in this cap ratio chart. This is the ratio of two different cryptos, all of it, versus the
6109000	6113480	value of all the gold. So there are several different times you're going to this. So,
6113480	6118080	for example, for the Bitcoin curve, I have the number of Bitcoin distance at any given time.
6118180	6122120	So again, as the number of Bitcoin has been growing because it's been doled out to miners
6122120	6127580	as a reward, the number of coins in existence has been changing. That's a Bitcoin on the open
6127580	6133460	market. The amount of gold that's been dug out of and refined into bullion, that's been changing
6133460	6137540	with the World Gold Council. So I take that data and throw that in. And then the price of gold has
6137540	6142500	been changing over time. So you take those four pieces of data and you get one ratio out of it.
6142500	6148000	So this is the ratio of the value of all the world's Bitcoin divided by the value of all the
6148000	6153560	world's gold. And you can see that it's, again, gone through the hard to believe appreciation
6153560	6159960	silly days. And at the current moment, all of the world's Bitcoin is worth roughly 10% of all
6159960	6165340	the world's gold. If you do the same calculation for a minute, you get a result that all the
6165340	6172860	Monero is worth about one one-hundredth of all the gold in the world. It's one ten-thousandth
6172860	6178940	of the value of the above ground gold in the world. Actually, this comparison of crypto versus
6178940	6185320	gold is more apt for the case of Monero, because when you take a bar of gold and you flip it over,
6185320	6190320	you do see a detailed list of everyone before you who owned a bar of gold going back to the
6190320	6197040	found from which it came. Whereas you do see that for Bitcoin. So arguably, Monero is a pure
6197880	6202080	digital replica characteristic of gold, and it's more appropriate to look at this
6202080	6205400	valuation ratio for that particular pairing.
6207560	6213800	All right, I think the big reason that one one common objection about Monero from people who
6213800	6218100	are used to thinking about Bitcoin is that, oh, the infinite emission. So I talked about this
6218100	6225580	before that the the in the so-called, quote unquote, infinite emission in Monero is number
6225580	6231700	one, it's linear. And number two, it's only infinite if you consider the Monero in the
6231700	6236620	limit as time goes to infinity. In other words, you you take this kind of mathematical construction
6236620	6241880	of what happens to a function as x axis goes to infinity and you look at what happens to the y
6241880	6247220	axis eventually. So that's a useful construction if you're to, you know, derive differential
6247220	6253620	calculus. But in terms of actual people using actual money, it's irrelevant what the limit of
6253620	6259160	emissions as t goes to infinity. Let me use it as an example. 100 years from today, everyone
6259160	6266100	seeing this talk right now is going to be dead in 100 years. So let's look at the supply
6266100	6274580	of that's in 100 years time in the year 2120. And up here is to make the point that if you put
6274580	6280040	if you pick a time point in the future, you can actually calculate the expected inflation,
6280040	6285320	not only of Bitcoin, but also of Monero. You'll quickly see that this so-called infinite inflation
6285320	6291760	is in fact highly inaccurate. So again, let's look at the year 2120 and let's look at Bitcoin
6291760	6297460	and Monero. Let's pretend that you have an investor who has as their goal, they want to
6297460	6303020	own one one millionth of one of these assets, but not one one millionth of the current supply.
6303020	6307780	They want to own one one millionth of the future supply in the year 2120. So how much gold are
6307780	6311440	they going to have to buy now if they want to own one one millionth of all the world's gold
6311440	6318660	in the year 2120? So for gold, we can extrapolate the past inflation rate of 1.8% per year.
6318660	6323420	And it turns out that that very reasonable 1% per year, when you extrapolate that out to a century,
6323420	6327840	it ends up being pretty significant. So if you extrapolate that 1.8% year to a century,
6327840	6332820	you get a fivefold is almost sixfold increase in the expected amount of gold 2120,
6332820	6337340	which means if you want to own one millionth of that to buy over a metric ton of gold,
6337340	6343160	which at current prices would be worth over $77 USD. Now let's do this for Bitcoin. So we know
6343160	6349360	what the current supply of Bitcoin is. And okay, hooray, the Bitcoin people, they have this figure
6349360	6353220	that is extremely easy for normies to understand, which is that there's only going to ever be 21
6353220	6358260	million Bitcoin ever. So the expected supply in a century is going to be about 21 million Bitcoin.
6358440	6363200	How much Bitcoin do you need to buy today, if you want to be guaranteed of having one one
6363200	6368220	millionth of this source of scarcity in the year 2120? Well, you would need to buy 21 Bitcoins
6368220	6374300	and current value $244,000. Let's do the same with Monero. So we know the emission of Monero
6374300	6380000	from the blockchain. And also we know from L emission, which is again, 0.3 Monero per minute.
6380440	6387020	Now, if you just sit down to do elementary school math and translate that per minute emission to a
6387020	6391980	per centuation, you get this maybe surprising result that the number of Monero in existence
6391980	6398140	in a century from now is going to be less than double that of the current supply of Monero.
6398140	6403720	That is, for an inflation rate, it's pretty dang respectable. It's more than gold.
6403980	6409860	And it's actually not that far off from Bitcoin. So for one to use the phrase infinite inflation
6409860	6416140	and say that Monero is on the wrong side of that line, is thinking in terms of,
6416140	6421640	you know, it's just not a practical real world calculation. Everyone's going to be dead in
6421640	6428440	100 years. And so why don't you know, if you use 100 years from now, the actual inflation that's
6428440	6433460	going to happen in Monero during your life is far from infinite. It's actually a lot closer
6433460	6438800	to the coins than you think. And so again, for Monero, if you have a goal of buying one millionth
6438800	6445900	of all the Monero in the world, but the year 2120 supply, that's going to require buying 30.1
6445900	6452280	Monero or 33.6. And the market value of that is currently $3. So this is another framework for
6452280	6459140	getting how relatively undervalued or overvalued these assets are in the current place.
6460800	6465840	All right, so I'm out. I don't know if there's going to be time for questions. Maybe not.
6465840	6470480	But thank you for listening. I hope you enjoyed this presentation. Enjoy the rest of Monero
6470480	6474420	Village for the final day that it's happening. If you want to learn more, the Monero Village
6474420	6479920	schedule is at monerovillage.org. For the Monero mainnet, that's getmonero.org. So
6480460	6485720	important to know, getmonero.org, it's not .com. It's not just, it's getmonero.org.
6485760	6489110	And if you want to get in touch with me, since there's not time for questions now,
6489680	6495180	I think probably on Discord, hang out on Discord, on DefCon Discord, at least.
6495880	6502600	That's my handle there is intj440. And otherwise, you can email me at danielbeatwater.consulting.
6502600	6505820	And with that, I will hand it back to Justin.