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970	7290	September 2018, Typhoon Jebi smashed into the Japanese coast with gusts of nearly 200 kilometers
7290	13010	an hour, flinging fuel tankers into bridges, inundating airports, and inflicting 12.6 billion
13010	18490	dollars of damage. Officials at the Taiwanese consulate in Osaka, in the heart of the typhoon,
18490	24450	valiantly fought through the storm to evacuate stranded citizens. A few days later, a story
24450	30710	claiming the Chinese embassy had dispatched buses to rescue Taiwanese went viral. A flood of
30710	37670	criticism, much of it deeply personal, poured on Taiwan's representative in Osaka. Ten days after
37670	44330	the typhoon, the representative had hanged himself. But there never were any buses from
44330	49890	the Chinese embassy. The story, originating among pro-Beijing trolls in Taiwan and given life by
49890	56210	the Communist Party-owned tabloid Global Times, was wholly invented. The story was one of hundreds
56210	61330	of examples of disinformation targeted at the Taiwanese government in the past two years.
61330	66790	In the lead up to the 2020 presidential elections, Beijing would deploy a campaign to control
66790	71450	Taiwanese narratives, whether through outright deception like the Osaka consulate case,
71450	76230	misrepresentation like in reporting on Hong Kong protests, or simply highlighting achievements of
76230	83030	the Communist Party and stoking pan-Chinese nationalism. China's influence in the Taiwanese
83030	88810	elections serves as a case study in how authoritarians make use of digital media to accomplish
88810	94770	their geopolitical goals. Over the next 30 minutes, we're going to go in depth with the Taiwanese
94770	99950	elections and the recent Polish elections as well, to understand what this new version of
99950	110040	information warfare looks like, how it succeeds, how it fails, and why. Taiwan, officially the
110040	115320	Republic of China, has a history and present intricately entwined with that of China,
115320	119880	officially the People's Republic of China, since both governments in Beijing and Taipei
119880	125660	claim to represent all of China. Beijing calls Taiwan a province, and Taipei refers to the
125660	131320	territory it administers as free area of China, free area of the Republic of China, in contrast
131320	136580	to the mainland. China has been large in each of Taiwan's elections, and much of each campaign
136580	142420	focuses on competing views of one day uniting with China, or forging an independent Taiwanese
142420	148820	culture, and one day an independent state. Representing a vision of pan-Chinese unity
149420	155380	is the Chinese Nationalist Party, or KMT, from its Chinese initials. They ran Taiwan as a
155380	162100	dictatorship for nearly half a century before transitioning to democracy in the 90s. In 2000,
162100	168430	they lost an election to the more independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP.
169060	176020	The KMT, or Chinese Nationalist, to this day, maintains close relations with Beijing and pushes
176020	184300	an agenda of greater cooperation and economic ties with the mainland. The DPP, or more independence-
184300	189840	has a base that comes from the non-Mandarin speaking majority of Taiwan, and favors the
189840	195700	cultivation of a unique Taiwanese identity, and is the only party besides the KMT to have held
195700	203100	the presidency. In 2016, Tsai Ing-wen, who helped to draft DPP's foreign policy, which emphasized
203100	211380	separation from China, defeated the KMT in the presidential elections by 25 points. In response,
211380	216350	China suspended official communication with Taiwan and began an economic pressure campaign.
216660	221880	Following guidance from Beijing's National Tourism Administration, Chinese tours to Taiwan
221880	228870	dropped by 40%, ravaging an industry that's responsible for 8% of Taiwan's economy.
229360	233610	China also released a slew of incentives to peel away Taiwan's best and brightest.
234060	238970	Tsai's popularity began to sink, aided by resurgent Chinese information operations.
239860	245310	China was pretty late to the game for information operations, especially when compared to Russia,
245310	252290	but by 2018, they had established a massive online empire. According to the CCP's propaganda
252290	257750	department, quote, information is a battleground, and quote, competition for news and public opinion
257750	264590	is a contest over discourse power. CCP outlets witnessed an astronomical rise in popularity,
264590	272030	especially on Facebook, which is banned in China, and now Chinese-owned outlets account for seven
272030	279370	of the nine most-followed news pages anywhere in the world. Chinese state TV took to YouTube as
279370	285350	well and has since amassed billions of views, becoming the leading source of news in Mandarin
285350	293230	anywhere. Traditional media came under the party's thumb as well. The Chinese Communist Party
293230	299210	bought a $37 million stake in Wanwan, a food conglomerate, which over the next decade added
299210	306770	to its portfolio to leading Taiwanese television channels, CCTV and CCITV, which soon became
306770	314090	vehemently pro-KMT. The frequency of articles after this takeover criticizing Beijing dropped
314090	320870	by 70%. The Financial Times uncovered in a report that the Taiwan Affairs Office, an arm of Beijing's
320870	329590	government, had a say in every single headline and report. Throughout 2018, much of what Beijing
329590	337510	was demanding attention on was the astronomical rise of Han Kuo-yu. A longtime member of parliament,
337510	344930	Han took on the unlikely task of unseating the dominant DPP from Kaohsiung, Taiwan's second city
344930	351310	and a base of DPP support. With a populist campaign promising economic rejuvenation,
351310	357190	and with extensive use of social media, Han's popularity soared. Unlike other populist social
357190	362750	media politicians, Han was unwaveringly cordial, refusing to speak negatively of rivals or even
362750	368730	their platforms. A Facebook fan page of Han's soon became one of Taiwan's largest and coordinated
368730	375430	rallies with hundreds of thousands of followers. Taiwanese media from all parties spoke of a
375430	384030	Han wave. CCTV and CCITV, the two television channels that take orders from Beijing,
384030	391570	gushed over Han and the KMT. According to a Taiwanese security official, China mobilized
391570	396870	300,000 cyber operatives, twice the size of Taiwan's army, to sway opinion in Taiwanese
396870	403050	social media. Adopting tactics from Russia's troll farms, the operatives blasted Tsai.
403210	408010	Disinformation abounded, like a rumor the president intended to sell part of Taiwan to the United
408010	414890	States. A 2018 survey by the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden,
414890	420030	found that only Latvia and the United States were targeted for more disinformation in 2018
420410	430770	than Taiwan. The KMT swept local elections. Not only did Han win the mayoralty in Kaohsiung,
430770	437030	but the KMT, having lost the national election by 25 points just two years earlier,
437030	444530	won local elections nationally by 9%. Tsai's, quote, separatist stance has lost her the support
444530	448810	of the people on the island, crowed China Daily, a CCP-owned newspaper.
450570	458370	As the role of China in the 2018 elections became clear, DPP supporters grew enraged. In 2019,
458370	464250	tens of thousands rallied in Taipei against Chinese-controlled media. The proximate cause
464250	469050	was the start of protests in Hong Kong against the Chinese extradition bill, inspired by events
469050	475710	in Taiwan, as well as the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, both of which were
475710	482450	downplayed by KMT-allied media. Taiwan began to lean heavily on the platforms that had long been
482450	487360	engines of Chinese disinformation, forging partnerships with Twitter and Facebook.
487970	493250	DPP, against accusations that the KMT was using it to muzzle dissent,
493250	497270	passed legislation aimed at discouraging meddling from China.
499050	504250	In the week leading up to the presidential election on January 11th, 2020, according to
504250	511990	our research, CCP-owned media planted 178 stories about Han and the KMT in traditional Chinese,
511990	517570	the script used in Hong Kong and Taiwan, but not on the mainland, in addition to 25 videos in
517570	524970	Mandarin. The overall sentiment of this content when referring to Han was plus 0.6, on a scale
524970	530950	where negative one is most negative and plus one is most positive, and 80% of scores are between
530950	538210	0.1 and negative 0.1. Those commenting or replying on videos responded in an exceptionally positive
538210	543230	manner as well, with those writing in traditional Chinese, suggesting they're either Hong Kongers
543230	551890	or Taiwanese, expressing a sentiment towards Han of plus 0.42. By contrast, China's 142 stories
551890	558190	on Tsai in traditional Chinese and 21 Mandarin videos expressed an average sentiment of negative
558190	565110	0.32, with traditional Chinese commenters responding with an average sentiment of negative 0.2.
565210	570370	But these story counts, as well as engagement counts, were fairly low by Chinese state media
570370	575970	standards. The Taiwanese election occurred the week after COVID-19 was first described,
575970	582130	which quickly dominated the focus of CCP outlets, with two leading nominally private Taiwanese
582130	588070	broadcasters taking orders from Beijing as well. Local proxies could fill in the role that
588070	595090	otherwise would have been played by the CCP. More covert operations, however, proliferated.
595090	601170	Twitter later detected 170,000 bots spreading Chinese influence. The intelligence service,
601170	606890	NSB, found that the Facebook page that helped to coordinate Han's early election
607350	613890	was created by the Communist Party. And working with Facebook, they removed that page along with
613890	621270	260 others created by the Communist Party, but masquerading as local Taiwanese. Of half a dozen
621270	626910	viral disinformation claims that we tracked linked to these pages, none wound up receiving more than
626910	635430	7,000 shares. On January 11th, 2020, voters in Taiwan overwhelmingly opted for Tsai,
635430	642790	who received 57% of the vote to Han's 39%. In the end, Taiwan successfully fought back against
642790	647750	interference from a larger and more powerful adversary with little outside influence on the
647750	653290	election detected. But in doing so, they gave sweeping powers to the state to define the limits
653290	658330	of reasonable dissent, possibly silencing good faith debates on the extent of cooperation with
658330	664510	China, one of the most important issues in every Taiwanese election. China, despite its massive
664510	669810	advantage in terms of manpower and funding, launched a sloppy and ineffectual campaign online,
669810	675710	distracted by the looming threat of COVID, unable to create viral content, and unable to stay ahead
675710	681030	of Twitter's bot detection system. Taiwan's victory over disinformation, though, could very
681030	686290	well be illusory. With Han already trailing by 20 points 100 days before the election,
686290	689990	and anti-Chinese sentiment running high following the Hong Kong protests,
689990	695230	China's digital army may have simply counted its losses and refocused on higher priorities.
696470	701870	Four months later, and halfway around the world, in the brick medieval town of Krakow,
701870	708510	the archbishop, whose predecessors include John Paul II, delivered a homily marking the 75th
708510	714630	anniversary of the Warsaw uprising. Quote, we also know that our land is thankfully not affected
714630	720250	by the red plague, he intoned, referring to communist rule. But that does not mean there
720250	725050	is no one that wants to control our souls, our hearts, and our minds. This new plague is not
725050	731490	Marxist-Bolshevik, but born out of the same sphere of neo-Marxism. Not red, but rainbow.
732670	737710	Both the content of the archbishop's homily, the supposed threat of social liberalism,
737710	743370	and the symbolism commemorating Poland's fight against fascism, foreshadowed the political axes
743370	749190	in the country's 2020 election, one that inflamed internal intentions to a level not seen since the
749190	755530	fall of communism. With both sides staking out staunchly anti-Russian positions, Moscow launched
755730	761930	a massive campaign to engender outrage from each side against each other. In thousands of stories,
761930	767270	Russian media warned Poles of the coming end of traditional values, or the rise of fascism.
767270	772070	The election proved a case study in information operations towards destructive as opposed to
772070	778770	constructive ends, not supporting a party, but stirring unrest throughout the country.
778770	784670	The response of the ruling Law and Justice Party, PIS, dousing dissent and muzzling independent
784670	790630	media, reveals how combating disinformation, like combating terrorism a decade before,
790630	793790	can be a pretext to support authoritarian goals.
795370	801190	PIS began in 2001 as a standard center-right party allied with Christian Democrats in the EU
801190	807950	and won the presidency for the first time in 2005. But disaster struck in 2010 when much of
807950	815030	PIS leadership died in a plane crash on its way to a memorial service in Smolensk, Russia,
815030	820890	and the party's surviving leaders afterwards adopted an increasingly conspiratorial and
820890	828030	nationalistic tone. Though vehemently anti-Russian, PIS's strident defense of traditionalism fit
828030	833410	perfectly with Moscow's new self-portrayal as a bulwark against the EU and its, quote,
833410	839090	homosexual propaganda. With Russian outlets dominating YouTube and Russian bots dominating
839090	844690	Twitter and Facebook, similar far-right populist movements gained traction throughout Europe.
845290	851470	In this wave, PIS leader Andrzej Duda captured the presidency in 2015,
851470	858930	beating the center-left Civic Platform, or PO, coalition. Duda's first term in office was marked
858930	865050	by a series of moves to bring independent institutions under the rule of PIS. The newly
865050	871250	PIS-dominated legislature refused to seat duly appointed judges from the previous administration,
871250	876870	instead filling the highest courts with partisan loyalists. Claiming threats of foreign influence,
876870	882250	Duda ousted the head of the state broadcaster, Televizja Polska, and editors of public media
882250	890790	organizations, such as Gazeta Wyborcza and Polityka, in favor of PIS loyalists. A bipartisan
890790	895970	report showing that the Smolensk disaster was a result of pilot error was discarded,
895970	903590	and conspiracies about foreign agents' involvement became state canon. As Duda and PIS increasingly
903590	909470	sought to merge party and state, the center-left PO began to portray the PIS as threatening to
909470	915350	establish an authoritarian regime. PIS's ultra-nationalistic language lent itself to
915350	920810	charges of fascism, as did new laws curbing free speech, such as one criminalizing any
920810	925970	implication of Polish involvement in the Holocaust. Following the ousting of a pro-Russian
925970	932530	president in Ukraine in 2014, Russia began a massive multi-year, multi-language campaign
932530	938810	to portray the NATO-friendly nationalists in the old eastern bloc as fascists and heirs to those
938810	944990	who fought alongside Nazis against the Soviet Union. Nearly 60% of all instances of disinformation
944990	952370	from Russia in Polish portrayed Duda's PIS party as fascist or fascist sympathizers.
953610	961550	In February 2019, PO's rising star, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, signed a bill
961550	968630	that would include same-sex education in school curriculums. With a dominant grasp on state media,
968630	974590	PIS whipped up homophobic hysteria. The next month, a small town in the country's conservative
974590	982990	southeast declared itself a, quote, LGBT ideology free zone. By August, 30 towns and four of Poland's
982990	990170	16 provinces declared the same. The backdrop made the 2019 parliamentary election among the most
990170	998450	divisive in Polish history. With both the PO and PIS taking strident anti-Russian stances,
998450	1004950	Moscow turned towards inflaming sentiment on both sides. Sputnik Poland published 399 pieces
1004950	1013170	supportive of the LGBT free zones and 265 pieces accusing the government of cozying up with fascists.
1013290	1019310	Journalist Martin Ray uncovered dozens of links between the Kremlin and nationalists on the
1019310	1025270	rightmost edges of PIS' coalition, while a report from the Oxford Institute on Computational
1025270	1031490	Propaganda confirmed that bots were acting to further polarize the electorate. But with near
1031490	1038050	total control over state media, PIS was able to expand its popular vote majority in the parliamentary
1038050	1047050	elections. With the success of the 2019 Rainbow Plague campaign, PIS doubled down in the 2020
1047050	1053800	presidential elections, which pitted Duda against Warsaw mayor and PO candidate Trzaskowski.
1053800	1060100	Trzaskowski sought to make the election a choice between democracy and authoritarianism. Duda
1060100	1065400	aimed to cast the vote as one between foreign imported gay rights and Polish tradition.
1065480	1070700	The election was characterized by widespread disinformation, the most prominent case coming
1070700	1077420	when Russia hacked the Polish War Studies Academy website on April 23rd, allowing the hackers to
1077420	1083660	publish forged letters by a Polish general calling for soldiers to fight, quote, the American occupation.
1084360	1088740	Over 57 public Facebook groups reposted links to the letters,
1088740	1092600	and average Facebook users followed suit in proliferating false stories.
1093560	1099840	Like Russia's I.O. campaigns overall in Poland, the purpose was not to support any one candidate,
1099840	1104880	but to create a sense of chaos and imminent violence. Other posts parroted Polish political
1104880	1111400	leaflets, warning of scandals and poverty if Trzaskowski was elected over Duda. Other content
1111400	1118000	claimed LGBT activists set Polish flags on fire, associating the anarchic behavior with Trzaskowski.
1118720	1123160	On the other side, posts mentioning Duda characterized the current European environment
1123160	1130020	under his leadership as a chaotic storm. Duda was also accused of brutalizing public life of Poles,
1130160	1136660	a dry run for a fascist takeover. In the two weeks leading up to the second round of the
1136660	1142040	presidential election, Polish language media from Russian outlets saw a large spike in incendiary
1142040	1148300	terms. References to fascism, excluding references to Russia's Victory Day parade, which was held
1148300	1155640	during this period, saw a 20% spike with an average sentiment of negative 0.76, and audiences
1155640	1162540	responded similarly negative with negative 0.52. References to LGBT and related key terms
1162540	1168740	increased by 11% in the same period, with an average sentiment expressed of negative 0.22,
1168740	1174440	and audience response of negative 0.17. Russian outlets portrayed both candidates, Duda, negative
1174440	1182340	0.17, Trzaskowski, negative 0.15, and both coalitions, PIS, negative 0.26, PO, negative 0.21
1182340	1192590	in negative terms. On July 12th, 2020, voters in Poland re-elected Andrzej Duda for a second
1192590	1201390	presidential term with 51% of the vote to Rafał Trzaskowski's 49%. Maciej Kieślowski, a professor
1201390	1207290	at the Central European University, called the election, quote, a death blow to Poland's liberal
1207290	1213430	democracy. With anti-Russian sentiment high throughout Poland, especially as Moscow began
1213610	1219050	a campaign to blame the Second World War, and probably on Poland, Russia instead turned to
1219050	1224490	destructive information operations, amplifying divisive voices, sowing distrust among the
1224490	1230910	population, and undermining institutions. Though Russia plays large in Duda's conspiracies, Duda
1230910	1236530	was happy to oblige, parroting Russian talking points and tactics on the EU and gay rights.
1236530	1242190	Even among anti-Russian audiences, Russian I.O. was able to further Russian narratives.
1242370	1247970	Despite Duda's own dalliances with disinformation, he was able to deploy fear of disinformation to
1247970	1253510	win closer NATO support and to silence the Senate home, much as autocrats had done with the fight
1253510	1260770	against terrorism throughout the early 2000s. As we approach the 2020 U.S. presidential election,
1260770	1267190	Russia and China command dominant positions on social media. The top YouTube publisher
1267190	1272330	is the Kremlin, which owns the platform's most-watched news network, even in English,
1272330	1276510	and seven of the nine most-followed news pages on Facebook,
1276510	1280310	all of them in English, belong to the Communist Party of China.
1280790	1285730	In Taiwan, we saw how the Communist Party wove itself into the workings of an opposition party,
1285730	1291110	but facing massive public backlash and the growing unpopularity of the opposition,
1291110	1295670	retreated as the presidential election approached. Efforts to stem disinformation
1295670	1299590	notched up significant victories through partnerships with social media companies,
1299590	1304770	but legislation failed to win bipartisan support and thus shake off the appearance of censorship.
1305490	1310130	In Poland, we saw how Russia adapted to an environment without support on either side
1310130	1316730	by amplifying dissent. Fellow travelers against gay rights and four wild conspiracies helped to
1316730	1322290	ensure civil strife, anti-EU sentiment, and strain all Western European alliances in Russia's near
1322290	1328390	abroad. Successful information warfare is adaptable, and with so much social media power
1328390	1334110	and advanced targeting techniques, anti-democratic forces can easily toggle between constructive
1334110	1339730	campaigns to support a party and destructive campaigns to sow chaos. Only through coordination
1339730	1345090	between apolitical institutions and the social media platforms, we find true progress against
1345090	1348810	information warfare while maintaining our democratic values.