[00:00.970 --> 00:07.290] September 2018, Typhoon Jebi smashed into the Japanese coast with gusts of nearly 200 kilometers [00:07.290 --> 00:13.010] an hour, flinging fuel tankers into bridges, inundating airports, and inflicting 12.6 billion [00:13.010 --> 00:18.490] dollars of damage. Officials at the Taiwanese consulate in Osaka, in the heart of the typhoon, [00:18.490 --> 00:24.450] valiantly fought through the storm to evacuate stranded citizens. A few days later, a story [00:24.450 --> 00:30.710] claiming the Chinese embassy had dispatched buses to rescue Taiwanese went viral. A flood of [00:30.710 --> 00:37.670] criticism, much of it deeply personal, poured on Taiwan's representative in Osaka. Ten days after [00:37.670 --> 00:44.330] the typhoon, the representative had hanged himself. But there never were any buses from [00:44.330 --> 00:49.890] the Chinese embassy. The story, originating among pro-Beijing trolls in Taiwan and given life by [00:49.890 --> 00:56.210] the Communist Party-owned tabloid Global Times, was wholly invented. The story was one of hundreds [00:56.210 --> 01:01.330] of examples of disinformation targeted at the Taiwanese government in the past two years. [01:01.330 --> 01:06.790] In the lead up to the 2020 presidential elections, Beijing would deploy a campaign to control [01:06.790 --> 01:11.450] Taiwanese narratives, whether through outright deception like the Osaka consulate case, [01:11.450 --> 01:16.230] misrepresentation like in reporting on Hong Kong protests, or simply highlighting achievements of [01:16.230 --> 01:23.030] the Communist Party and stoking pan-Chinese nationalism. China's influence in the Taiwanese [01:23.030 --> 01:28.810] elections serves as a case study in how authoritarians make use of digital media to accomplish [01:28.810 --> 01:34.770] their geopolitical goals. Over the next 30 minutes, we're going to go in depth with the Taiwanese [01:34.770 --> 01:39.950] elections and the recent Polish elections as well, to understand what this new version of [01:39.950 --> 01:50.040] information warfare looks like, how it succeeds, how it fails, and why. Taiwan, officially the [01:50.040 --> 01:55.320] Republic of China, has a history and present intricately entwined with that of China, [01:55.320 --> 01:59.880] officially the People's Republic of China, since both governments in Beijing and Taipei [01:59.880 --> 02:05.660] claim to represent all of China. Beijing calls Taiwan a province, and Taipei refers to the [02:05.660 --> 02:11.320] territory it administers as free area of China, free area of the Republic of China, in contrast [02:11.320 --> 02:16.580] to the mainland. China has been large in each of Taiwan's elections, and much of each campaign [02:16.580 --> 02:22.420] focuses on competing views of one day uniting with China, or forging an independent Taiwanese [02:22.420 --> 02:28.820] culture, and one day an independent state. Representing a vision of pan-Chinese unity [02:29.420 --> 02:35.380] is the Chinese Nationalist Party, or KMT, from its Chinese initials. They ran Taiwan as a [02:35.380 --> 02:42.100] dictatorship for nearly half a century before transitioning to democracy in the 90s. In 2000, [02:42.100 --> 02:48.430] they lost an election to the more independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP. [02:49.060 --> 02:56.020] The KMT, or Chinese Nationalist, to this day, maintains close relations with Beijing and pushes [02:56.020 --> 03:04.300] an agenda of greater cooperation and economic ties with the mainland. The DPP, or more independence- [03:04.300 --> 03:09.840] has a base that comes from the non-Mandarin speaking majority of Taiwan, and favors the [03:09.840 --> 03:15.700] cultivation of a unique Taiwanese identity, and is the only party besides the KMT to have held [03:15.700 --> 03:23.100] the presidency. In 2016, Tsai Ing-wen, who helped to draft DPP's foreign policy, which emphasized [03:23.100 --> 03:31.380] separation from China, defeated the KMT in the presidential elections by 25 points. In response, [03:31.380 --> 03:36.350] China suspended official communication with Taiwan and began an economic pressure campaign. [03:36.660 --> 03:41.880] Following guidance from Beijing's National Tourism Administration, Chinese tours to Taiwan [03:41.880 --> 03:48.870] dropped by 40%, ravaging an industry that's responsible for 8% of Taiwan's economy. [03:49.360 --> 03:53.610] China also released a slew of incentives to peel away Taiwan's best and brightest. [03:54.060 --> 03:58.970] Tsai's popularity began to sink, aided by resurgent Chinese information operations. [03:59.860 --> 04:05.310] China was pretty late to the game for information operations, especially when compared to Russia, [04:05.310 --> 04:12.290] but by 2018, they had established a massive online empire. According to the CCP's propaganda [04:12.290 --> 04:17.750] department, quote, information is a battleground, and quote, competition for news and public opinion [04:17.750 --> 04:24.590] is a contest over discourse power. CCP outlets witnessed an astronomical rise in popularity, [04:24.590 --> 04:32.030] especially on Facebook, which is banned in China, and now Chinese-owned outlets account for seven [04:32.030 --> 04:39.370] of the nine most-followed news pages anywhere in the world. Chinese state TV took to YouTube as [04:39.370 --> 04:45.350] well and has since amassed billions of views, becoming the leading source of news in Mandarin [04:45.350 --> 04:53.230] anywhere. Traditional media came under the party's thumb as well. The Chinese Communist Party [04:53.230 --> 04:59.210] bought a $37 million stake in Wanwan, a food conglomerate, which over the next decade added [04:59.210 --> 05:06.770] to its portfolio to leading Taiwanese television channels, CCTV and CCITV, which soon became [05:06.770 --> 05:14.090] vehemently pro-KMT. The frequency of articles after this takeover criticizing Beijing dropped [05:14.090 --> 05:20.870] by 70%. The Financial Times uncovered in a report that the Taiwan Affairs Office, an arm of Beijing's [05:20.870 --> 05:29.590] government, had a say in every single headline and report. Throughout 2018, much of what Beijing [05:29.590 --> 05:37.510] was demanding attention on was the astronomical rise of Han Kuo-yu. A longtime member of parliament, [05:37.510 --> 05:44.930] Han took on the unlikely task of unseating the dominant DPP from Kaohsiung, Taiwan's second city [05:44.930 --> 05:51.310] and a base of DPP support. With a populist campaign promising economic rejuvenation, [05:51.310 --> 05:57.190] and with extensive use of social media, Han's popularity soared. Unlike other populist social [05:57.190 --> 06:02.750] media politicians, Han was unwaveringly cordial, refusing to speak negatively of rivals or even [06:02.750 --> 06:08.730] their platforms. A Facebook fan page of Han's soon became one of Taiwan's largest and coordinated [06:08.730 --> 06:15.430] rallies with hundreds of thousands of followers. Taiwanese media from all parties spoke of a [06:15.430 --> 06:24.030] Han wave. CCTV and CCITV, the two television channels that take orders from Beijing, [06:24.030 --> 06:31.570] gushed over Han and the KMT. According to a Taiwanese security official, China mobilized [06:31.570 --> 06:36.870] 300,000 cyber operatives, twice the size of Taiwan's army, to sway opinion in Taiwanese [06:36.870 --> 06:43.050] social media. Adopting tactics from Russia's troll farms, the operatives blasted Tsai. [06:43.210 --> 06:48.010] Disinformation abounded, like a rumor the president intended to sell part of Taiwan to the United [06:48.010 --> 06:54.890] States. A 2018 survey by the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, [06:54.890 --> 07:00.030] found that only Latvia and the United States were targeted for more disinformation in 2018 [07:00.410 --> 07:10.770] than Taiwan. The KMT swept local elections. Not only did Han win the mayoralty in Kaohsiung, [07:10.770 --> 07:17.030] but the KMT, having lost the national election by 25 points just two years earlier, [07:17.030 --> 07:24.530] won local elections nationally by 9%. Tsai's, quote, separatist stance has lost her the support [07:24.530 --> 07:28.810] of the people on the island, crowed China Daily, a CCP-owned newspaper. [07:30.570 --> 07:38.370] As the role of China in the 2018 elections became clear, DPP supporters grew enraged. In 2019, [07:38.370 --> 07:44.250] tens of thousands rallied in Taipei against Chinese-controlled media. The proximate cause [07:44.250 --> 07:49.050] was the start of protests in Hong Kong against the Chinese extradition bill, inspired by events [07:49.050 --> 07:55.710] in Taiwan, as well as the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, both of which were [07:55.710 --> 08:02.450] downplayed by KMT-allied media. Taiwan began to lean heavily on the platforms that had long been [08:02.450 --> 08:07.360] engines of Chinese disinformation, forging partnerships with Twitter and Facebook. [08:07.970 --> 08:13.250] DPP, against accusations that the KMT was using it to muzzle dissent, [08:13.250 --> 08:17.270] passed legislation aimed at discouraging meddling from China. [08:19.050 --> 08:24.250] In the week leading up to the presidential election on January 11th, 2020, according to [08:24.250 --> 08:31.990] our research, CCP-owned media planted 178 stories about Han and the KMT in traditional Chinese, [08:31.990 --> 08:37.570] the script used in Hong Kong and Taiwan, but not on the mainland, in addition to 25 videos in [08:37.570 --> 08:44.970] Mandarin. The overall sentiment of this content when referring to Han was plus 0.6, on a scale [08:44.970 --> 08:50.950] where negative one is most negative and plus one is most positive, and 80% of scores are between [08:50.950 --> 08:58.210] 0.1 and negative 0.1. Those commenting or replying on videos responded in an exceptionally positive [08:58.210 --> 09:03.230] manner as well, with those writing in traditional Chinese, suggesting they're either Hong Kongers [09:03.230 --> 09:11.890] or Taiwanese, expressing a sentiment towards Han of plus 0.42. By contrast, China's 142 stories [09:11.890 --> 09:18.190] on Tsai in traditional Chinese and 21 Mandarin videos expressed an average sentiment of negative [09:18.190 --> 09:25.110] 0.32, with traditional Chinese commenters responding with an average sentiment of negative 0.2. [09:25.210 --> 09:30.370] But these story counts, as well as engagement counts, were fairly low by Chinese state media [09:30.370 --> 09:35.970] standards. The Taiwanese election occurred the week after COVID-19 was first described, [09:35.970 --> 09:42.130] which quickly dominated the focus of CCP outlets, with two leading nominally private Taiwanese [09:42.130 --> 09:48.070] broadcasters taking orders from Beijing as well. Local proxies could fill in the role that [09:48.070 --> 09:55.090] otherwise would have been played by the CCP. More covert operations, however, proliferated. [09:55.090 --> 10:01.170] Twitter later detected 170,000 bots spreading Chinese influence. The intelligence service, [10:01.170 --> 10:06.890] NSB, found that the Facebook page that helped to coordinate Han's early election [10:07.350 --> 10:13.890] was created by the Communist Party. And working with Facebook, they removed that page along with [10:13.890 --> 10:21.270] 260 others created by the Communist Party, but masquerading as local Taiwanese. Of half a dozen [10:21.270 --> 10:26.910] viral disinformation claims that we tracked linked to these pages, none wound up receiving more than [10:26.910 --> 10:35.430] 7,000 shares. On January 11th, 2020, voters in Taiwan overwhelmingly opted for Tsai, [10:35.430 --> 10:42.790] who received 57% of the vote to Han's 39%. In the end, Taiwan successfully fought back against [10:42.790 --> 10:47.750] interference from a larger and more powerful adversary with little outside influence on the [10:47.750 --> 10:53.290] election detected. But in doing so, they gave sweeping powers to the state to define the limits [10:53.290 --> 10:58.330] of reasonable dissent, possibly silencing good faith debates on the extent of cooperation with [10:58.330 --> 11:04.510] China, one of the most important issues in every Taiwanese election. China, despite its massive [11:04.510 --> 11:09.810] advantage in terms of manpower and funding, launched a sloppy and ineffectual campaign online, [11:09.810 --> 11:15.710] distracted by the looming threat of COVID, unable to create viral content, and unable to stay ahead [11:15.710 --> 11:21.030] of Twitter's bot detection system. Taiwan's victory over disinformation, though, could very [11:21.030 --> 11:26.290] well be illusory. With Han already trailing by 20 points 100 days before the election, [11:26.290 --> 11:29.990] and anti-Chinese sentiment running high following the Hong Kong protests, [11:29.990 --> 11:35.230] China's digital army may have simply counted its losses and refocused on higher priorities. [11:36.470 --> 11:41.870] Four months later, and halfway around the world, in the brick medieval town of Krakow, [11:41.870 --> 11:48.510] the archbishop, whose predecessors include John Paul II, delivered a homily marking the 75th [11:48.510 --> 11:54.630] anniversary of the Warsaw uprising. Quote, we also know that our land is thankfully not affected [11:54.630 --> 12:00.250] by the red plague, he intoned, referring to communist rule. But that does not mean there [12:00.250 --> 12:05.050] is no one that wants to control our souls, our hearts, and our minds. This new plague is not [12:05.050 --> 12:11.490] Marxist-Bolshevik, but born out of the same sphere of neo-Marxism. Not red, but rainbow. [12:12.670 --> 12:17.710] Both the content of the archbishop's homily, the supposed threat of social liberalism, [12:17.710 --> 12:23.370] and the symbolism commemorating Poland's fight against fascism, foreshadowed the political axes [12:23.370 --> 12:29.190] in the country's 2020 election, one that inflamed internal intentions to a level not seen since the [12:29.190 --> 12:35.530] fall of communism. With both sides staking out staunchly anti-Russian positions, Moscow launched [12:35.730 --> 12:41.930] a massive campaign to engender outrage from each side against each other. In thousands of stories, [12:41.930 --> 12:47.270] Russian media warned Poles of the coming end of traditional values, or the rise of fascism. [12:47.270 --> 12:52.070] The election proved a case study in information operations towards destructive as opposed to [12:52.070 --> 12:58.770] constructive ends, not supporting a party, but stirring unrest throughout the country. [12:58.770 --> 13:04.670] The response of the ruling Law and Justice Party, PIS, dousing dissent and muzzling independent [13:04.670 --> 13:10.630] media, reveals how combating disinformation, like combating terrorism a decade before, [13:10.630 --> 13:13.790] can be a pretext to support authoritarian goals. [13:15.370 --> 13:21.190] PIS began in 2001 as a standard center-right party allied with Christian Democrats in the EU [13:21.190 --> 13:27.950] and won the presidency for the first time in 2005. But disaster struck in 2010 when much of [13:27.950 --> 13:35.030] PIS leadership died in a plane crash on its way to a memorial service in Smolensk, Russia, [13:35.030 --> 13:40.890] and the party's surviving leaders afterwards adopted an increasingly conspiratorial and [13:40.890 --> 13:48.030] nationalistic tone. Though vehemently anti-Russian, PIS's strident defense of traditionalism fit [13:48.030 --> 13:53.410] perfectly with Moscow's new self-portrayal as a bulwark against the EU and its, quote, [13:53.410 --> 13:59.090] homosexual propaganda. With Russian outlets dominating YouTube and Russian bots dominating [13:59.090 --> 14:04.690] Twitter and Facebook, similar far-right populist movements gained traction throughout Europe. [14:05.290 --> 14:11.470] In this wave, PIS leader Andrzej Duda captured the presidency in 2015, [14:11.470 --> 14:18.930] beating the center-left Civic Platform, or PO, coalition. Duda's first term in office was marked [14:18.930 --> 14:25.050] by a series of moves to bring independent institutions under the rule of PIS. The newly [14:25.050 --> 14:31.250] PIS-dominated legislature refused to seat duly appointed judges from the previous administration, [14:31.250 --> 14:36.870] instead filling the highest courts with partisan loyalists. Claiming threats of foreign influence, [14:36.870 --> 14:42.250] Duda ousted the head of the state broadcaster, Televizja Polska, and editors of public media [14:42.250 --> 14:50.790] organizations, such as Gazeta Wyborcza and Polityka, in favor of PIS loyalists. A bipartisan [14:50.790 --> 14:55.970] report showing that the Smolensk disaster was a result of pilot error was discarded, [14:55.970 --> 15:03.590] and conspiracies about foreign agents' involvement became state canon. As Duda and PIS increasingly [15:03.590 --> 15:09.470] sought to merge party and state, the center-left PO began to portray the PIS as threatening to [15:09.470 --> 15:15.350] establish an authoritarian regime. PIS's ultra-nationalistic language lent itself to [15:15.350 --> 15:20.810] charges of fascism, as did new laws curbing free speech, such as one criminalizing any [15:20.810 --> 15:25.970] implication of Polish involvement in the Holocaust. Following the ousting of a pro-Russian [15:25.970 --> 15:32.530] president in Ukraine in 2014, Russia began a massive multi-year, multi-language campaign [15:32.530 --> 15:38.810] to portray the NATO-friendly nationalists in the old eastern bloc as fascists and heirs to those [15:38.810 --> 15:44.990] who fought alongside Nazis against the Soviet Union. Nearly 60% of all instances of disinformation [15:44.990 --> 15:52.370] from Russia in Polish portrayed Duda's PIS party as fascist or fascist sympathizers. [15:53.610 --> 16:01.550] In February 2019, PO's rising star, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, signed a bill [16:01.550 --> 16:08.630] that would include same-sex education in school curriculums. With a dominant grasp on state media, [16:08.630 --> 16:14.590] PIS whipped up homophobic hysteria. The next month, a small town in the country's conservative [16:14.590 --> 16:22.990] southeast declared itself a, quote, LGBT ideology free zone. By August, 30 towns and four of Poland's [16:22.990 --> 16:30.170] 16 provinces declared the same. The backdrop made the 2019 parliamentary election among the most [16:30.170 --> 16:38.450] divisive in Polish history. With both the PO and PIS taking strident anti-Russian stances, [16:38.450 --> 16:44.950] Moscow turned towards inflaming sentiment on both sides. Sputnik Poland published 399 pieces [16:44.950 --> 16:53.170] supportive of the LGBT free zones and 265 pieces accusing the government of cozying up with fascists. [16:53.290 --> 16:59.310] Journalist Martin Ray uncovered dozens of links between the Kremlin and nationalists on the [16:59.310 --> 17:05.270] rightmost edges of PIS' coalition, while a report from the Oxford Institute on Computational [17:05.270 --> 17:11.490] Propaganda confirmed that bots were acting to further polarize the electorate. But with near [17:11.490 --> 17:18.050] total control over state media, PIS was able to expand its popular vote majority in the parliamentary [17:18.050 --> 17:27.050] elections. With the success of the 2019 Rainbow Plague campaign, PIS doubled down in the 2020 [17:27.050 --> 17:33.800] presidential elections, which pitted Duda against Warsaw mayor and PO candidate Trzaskowski. [17:33.800 --> 17:40.100] Trzaskowski sought to make the election a choice between democracy and authoritarianism. Duda [17:40.100 --> 17:45.400] aimed to cast the vote as one between foreign imported gay rights and Polish tradition. [17:45.480 --> 17:50.700] The election was characterized by widespread disinformation, the most prominent case coming [17:50.700 --> 17:57.420] when Russia hacked the Polish War Studies Academy website on April 23rd, allowing the hackers to [17:57.420 --> 18:03.660] publish forged letters by a Polish general calling for soldiers to fight, quote, the American occupation. [18:04.360 --> 18:08.740] Over 57 public Facebook groups reposted links to the letters, [18:08.740 --> 18:12.600] and average Facebook users followed suit in proliferating false stories. [18:13.560 --> 18:19.840] Like Russia's I.O. campaigns overall in Poland, the purpose was not to support any one candidate, [18:19.840 --> 18:24.880] but to create a sense of chaos and imminent violence. Other posts parroted Polish political [18:24.880 --> 18:31.400] leaflets, warning of scandals and poverty if Trzaskowski was elected over Duda. Other content [18:31.400 --> 18:38.000] claimed LGBT activists set Polish flags on fire, associating the anarchic behavior with Trzaskowski. [18:38.720 --> 18:43.160] On the other side, posts mentioning Duda characterized the current European environment [18:43.160 --> 18:50.020] under his leadership as a chaotic storm. Duda was also accused of brutalizing public life of Poles, [18:50.160 --> 18:56.660] a dry run for a fascist takeover. In the two weeks leading up to the second round of the [18:56.660 --> 19:02.040] presidential election, Polish language media from Russian outlets saw a large spike in incendiary [19:02.040 --> 19:08.300] terms. References to fascism, excluding references to Russia's Victory Day parade, which was held [19:08.300 --> 19:15.640] during this period, saw a 20% spike with an average sentiment of negative 0.76, and audiences [19:15.640 --> 19:22.540] responded similarly negative with negative 0.52. References to LGBT and related key terms [19:22.540 --> 19:28.740] increased by 11% in the same period, with an average sentiment expressed of negative 0.22, [19:28.740 --> 19:34.440] and audience response of negative 0.17. Russian outlets portrayed both candidates, Duda, negative [19:34.440 --> 19:42.340] 0.17, Trzaskowski, negative 0.15, and both coalitions, PIS, negative 0.26, PO, negative 0.21 [19:42.340 --> 19:52.590] in negative terms. On July 12th, 2020, voters in Poland re-elected Andrzej Duda for a second [19:52.590 --> 20:01.390] presidential term with 51% of the vote to Rafał Trzaskowski's 49%. Maciej Kieślowski, a professor [20:01.390 --> 20:07.290] at the Central European University, called the election, quote, a death blow to Poland's liberal [20:07.290 --> 20:13.430] democracy. With anti-Russian sentiment high throughout Poland, especially as Moscow began [20:13.610 --> 20:19.050] a campaign to blame the Second World War, and probably on Poland, Russia instead turned to [20:19.050 --> 20:24.490] destructive information operations, amplifying divisive voices, sowing distrust among the [20:24.490 --> 20:30.910] population, and undermining institutions. Though Russia plays large in Duda's conspiracies, Duda [20:30.910 --> 20:36.530] was happy to oblige, parroting Russian talking points and tactics on the EU and gay rights. [20:36.530 --> 20:42.190] Even among anti-Russian audiences, Russian I.O. was able to further Russian narratives. [20:42.370 --> 20:47.970] Despite Duda's own dalliances with disinformation, he was able to deploy fear of disinformation to [20:47.970 --> 20:53.510] win closer NATO support and to silence the Senate home, much as autocrats had done with the fight [20:53.510 --> 21:00.770] against terrorism throughout the early 2000s. As we approach the 2020 U.S. presidential election, [21:00.770 --> 21:07.190] Russia and China command dominant positions on social media. The top YouTube publisher [21:07.190 --> 21:12.330] is the Kremlin, which owns the platform's most-watched news network, even in English, [21:12.330 --> 21:16.510] and seven of the nine most-followed news pages on Facebook, [21:16.510 --> 21:20.310] all of them in English, belong to the Communist Party of China. [21:20.790 --> 21:25.730] In Taiwan, we saw how the Communist Party wove itself into the workings of an opposition party, [21:25.730 --> 21:31.110] but facing massive public backlash and the growing unpopularity of the opposition, [21:31.110 --> 21:35.670] retreated as the presidential election approached. Efforts to stem disinformation [21:35.670 --> 21:39.590] notched up significant victories through partnerships with social media companies, [21:39.590 --> 21:44.770] but legislation failed to win bipartisan support and thus shake off the appearance of censorship. [21:45.490 --> 21:50.130] In Poland, we saw how Russia adapted to an environment without support on either side [21:50.130 --> 21:56.730] by amplifying dissent. Fellow travelers against gay rights and four wild conspiracies helped to [21:56.730 --> 22:02.290] ensure civil strife, anti-EU sentiment, and strain all Western European alliances in Russia's near [22:02.290 --> 22:08.390] abroad. Successful information warfare is adaptable, and with so much social media power [22:08.390 --> 22:14.110] and advanced targeting techniques, anti-democratic forces can easily toggle between constructive [22:14.110 --> 22:19.730] campaigns to support a party and destructive campaigns to sow chaos. Only through coordination [22:19.730 --> 22:25.090] between apolitical institutions and the social media platforms, we find true progress against [22:25.090 --> 22:28.810] information warfare while maintaining our democratic values.