WEBVTT 00:00.970 --> 00:14.630 September 2018, Typhoon Jebi smashed into the Japanese coast with gusts of nearly 200 kilometers an hour, flinging fuel tankers into bridges, inundating airports, and inflicting 12.6 billion dollars of damage. 00:14.650 --> 00:22.650 Officials at the Taiwanese consulate in Osaka, in the heart of the typhoon, valiantly fought through the storm to evacuate stranded citizens. 00:22.950 --> 00:29.670 A few days later, a story claiming the Chinese embassy had dispatched buses to rescue Taiwanese went viral. 00:30.070 --> 00:36.590 A flood of criticism, much of it deeply personal, poured on Taiwan's representative in Osaka. 00:36.890 --> 00:41.510 Ten days after the typhoon, the representative had hanged himself. 00:42.190 --> 00:45.690 But there never were any buses from the Chinese embassy. 00:45.690 --> 00:54.350 The story, originating among pro-Beijing trolls in Taiwan and given life by the Communist Party-owned tabloid Global Times, was wholly invented. 00:54.750 --> 01:01.330 The story was one of hundreds of examples of disinformation targeted at the Taiwanese government in the past two years. 01:01.330 --> 01:20.050 In the lead up to the 2020 presidential elections, Beijing would deploy a campaign to control Taiwanese narratives, whether through outright deception like the Osaka consulate case, misrepresentation like in reporting on Hong Kong protests, or simply highlighting achievements of the Communist Party and stoking pan-Chinese nationalism. 01:21.070 --> 01:30.910 China's influence in the Taiwanese elections serves as a case study in how authoritarians make use of digital media to accomplish their geopolitical goals. 01:31.150 --> 01:45.470 Over the next 30 minutes, we're going to go in depth with the Taiwanese elections and the recent Polish elections as well, to understand what this new version of information warfare looks like, how it succeeds, how it fails, and why. 01:48.320 --> 02:02.320 Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, has a history and present intricately entwined with that of China, officially the People's Republic of China, since both governments in Beijing and Taipei claim to represent all of China. 02:02.320 --> 02:12.680 Beijing calls Taiwan a province, and Taipei refers to the territory it administers as free area of China, free area of the Republic of China, in contrast to the mainland. 02:13.160 --> 02:25.660 China has been large in each of Taiwan's elections, and much of each campaign focuses on competing views of one day uniting with China, or forging an independent Taiwanese culture, and one day an independent state. 02:26.580 --> 02:33.900 Representing a vision of pan-Chinese unity is the Chinese Nationalist Party, or KMT, from its Chinese initials. 02:33.900 --> 02:40.000 They ran Taiwan as a dictatorship for nearly half a century before transitioning to democracy in the 90s. 02:40.120 --> 02:48.430 In 2000, they lost an election to the more independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP. 02:49.060 --> 03:00.260 The KMT, or Chinese Nationalist, to this day, maintains close relations with Beijing and pushes an agenda of greater cooperation and economic ties with the mainland. 03:00.520 --> 03:16.980 The DPP, or more independence- has a base that comes from the non-Mandarin speaking majority of Taiwan, and favors the cultivation of a unique Taiwanese identity, and is the only party besides the KMT to have held the presidency. 03:16.980 --> 03:29.880 In 2016, Tsai Ing-wen, who helped to draft DPP's foreign policy, which emphasized separation from China, defeated the KMT in the presidential elections by 25 points. 03:29.960 --> 03:36.350 In response, China suspended official communication with Taiwan and began an economic pressure campaign. 03:36.660 --> 03:48.870 Following guidance from Beijing's National Tourism Administration, Chinese tours to Taiwan dropped by 40%, ravaging an industry that's responsible for 8% of Taiwan's economy. 03:49.360 --> 03:53.610 China also released a slew of incentives to peel away Taiwan's best and brightest. 03:54.060 --> 03:58.970 Tsai's popularity began to sink, aided by resurgent Chinese information operations. 03:59.860 --> 04:09.850 China was pretty late to the game for information operations, especially when compared to Russia, but by 2018, they had established a massive online empire. 04:09.870 --> 04:20.890 According to the CCP's propaganda department, quote, information is a battleground, and quote, competition for news and public opinion is a contest over discourse power. 04:21.050 --> 04:36.590 CCP outlets witnessed an astronomical rise in popularity, especially on Facebook, which is banned in China, and now Chinese-owned outlets account for seven of the nine most-followed news pages anywhere in the world. 04:36.770 --> 04:46.790 Chinese state TV took to YouTube as well and has since amassed billions of views, becoming the leading source of news in Mandarin anywhere. 04:47.730 --> 04:51.610 Traditional media came under the party's thumb as well. 04:51.610 --> 05:08.950 The Chinese Communist Party bought a $37 million stake in Wanwan, a food conglomerate, which over the next decade added to its portfolio to leading Taiwanese television channels, CCTV and CCITV, which soon became vehemently pro-KMT. 05:08.950 --> 05:15.190 The frequency of articles after this takeover criticizing Beijing dropped by 70%. 05:15.190 --> 05:25.110 The Financial Times uncovered in a report that the Taiwan Affairs Office, an arm of Beijing's government, had a say in every single headline and report. 05:26.450 --> 05:35.270 Throughout 2018, much of what Beijing was demanding attention on was the astronomical rise of Han Kuo-yu. 05:35.270 --> 05:47.310 A longtime member of parliament, Han took on the unlikely task of unseating the dominant DPP from Kaohsiung, Taiwan's second city and a base of DPP support. 05:47.310 --> 05:55.830 With a populist campaign promising economic rejuvenation, and with extensive use of social media, Han's popularity soared. 05:55.830 --> 06:04.050 Unlike other populist social media politicians, Han was unwaveringly cordial, refusing to speak negatively of rivals or even their platforms. 06:04.190 --> 06:11.730 A Facebook fan page of Han's soon became one of Taiwan's largest and coordinated rallies with hundreds of thousands of followers. 06:11.870 --> 06:16.610 Taiwanese media from all parties spoke of a Han wave. 06:18.870 --> 06:26.210 CCTV and CCITV, the two television channels that take orders from Beijing, gushed over Han and the KMT. 06:26.570 --> 06:38.370 According to a Taiwanese security official, China mobilized 300,000 cyber operatives, twice the size of Taiwan's army, to sway opinion in Taiwanese social media. 06:38.430 --> 06:43.050 Adopting tactics from Russia's troll farms, the operatives blasted Tsai. 06:43.210 --> 06:49.030 Disinformation abounded, like a rumor the president intended to sell part of Taiwan to the United States. 06:49.030 --> 07:01.990 A 2018 survey by the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, found that only Latvia and the United States were targeted for more disinformation in 2018 than Taiwan. 07:03.090 --> 07:06.730 The KMT swept local elections. 07:06.730 --> 07:20.010 Not only did Han win the mayoralty in Kaohsiung, but the KMT, having lost the national election by 25 points just two years earlier, won local elections nationally by 9%. 07:20.010 --> 07:28.810 Tsai's, quote, separatist stance has lost her the support of the people on the island, crowed China Daily, a CCP-owned newspaper. 07:30.570 --> 07:37.030 As the role of China in the 2018 elections became clear, DPP supporters grew enraged. 07:37.030 --> 07:43.150 In 2019, tens of thousands rallied in Taipei against Chinese-controlled media. 07:43.330 --> 07:58.490 The proximate cause was the start of protests in Hong Kong against the Chinese extradition bill, inspired by events in Taiwan, as well as the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, both of which were downplayed by KMT-allied media. 07:58.910 --> 08:07.360 Taiwan began to lean heavily on the platforms that had long been engines of Chinese disinformation, forging partnerships with Twitter and Facebook. 08:07.970 --> 08:17.270 DPP, against accusations that the KMT was using it to muzzle dissent, passed legislation aimed at discouraging meddling from China. 08:19.050 --> 08:38.630 In the week leading up to the presidential election on January 11th, 2020, according to our research, CCP-owned media planted 178 stories about Han and the KMT in traditional Chinese, the script used in Hong Kong and Taiwan, but not on the mainland, in addition to 25 videos in Mandarin. 08:38.790 --> 08:53.770 The overall sentiment of this content when referring to Han was plus 0.6, on a scale where negative one is most negative and plus one is most positive, and 80% of scores are between 0.1 and negative 0.1. 08:53.770 --> 09:08.550 Those commenting or replying on videos responded in an exceptionally positive manner as well, with those writing in traditional Chinese, suggesting they're either Hong Kongers or Taiwanese, expressing a sentiment towards Han of plus 0.42. 09:08.890 --> 09:25.110 By contrast, China's 142 stories on Tsai in traditional Chinese and 21 Mandarin videos expressed an average sentiment of negative 0.32, with traditional Chinese commenters responding with an average sentiment of negative 0.2. 09:25.210 --> 09:31.630 But these story counts, as well as engagement counts, were fairly low by Chinese state media standards. 09:31.630 --> 09:45.590 The Taiwanese election occurred the week after COVID-19 was first described, which quickly dominated the focus of CCP outlets, with two leading nominally private Taiwanese broadcasters taking orders from Beijing as well. 09:45.750 --> 09:50.550 Local proxies could fill in the role that otherwise would have been played by the CCP. 09:51.710 --> 09:55.090 More covert operations, however, proliferated. 09:55.090 --> 09:59.970 Twitter later detected 170,000 bots spreading Chinese influence. 09:59.970 --> 10:10.010 The intelligence service, NSB, found that the Facebook page that helped to coordinate Han's early election was created by the Communist Party. 10:10.010 --> 10:19.810 And working with Facebook, they removed that page along with 260 others created by the Communist Party, but masquerading as local Taiwanese. 10:20.390 --> 10:28.590 Of half a dozen viral disinformation claims that we tracked linked to these pages, none wound up receiving more than 7,000 shares. 10:29.970 --> 10:39.370 On January 11th, 2020, voters in Taiwan overwhelmingly opted for Tsai, who received 57% of the vote to Han's 39%. 10:39.370 --> 10:49.350 In the end, Taiwan successfully fought back against interference from a larger and more powerful adversary with little outside influence on the election detected. 10:49.350 --> 11:02.670 But in doing so, they gave sweeping powers to the state to define the limits of reasonable dissent, possibly silencing good faith debates on the extent of cooperation with China, one of the most important issues in every Taiwanese election. 11:03.330 --> 11:17.750 China, despite its massive advantage in terms of manpower and funding, launched a sloppy and ineffectual campaign online, distracted by the looming threat of COVID, unable to create viral content, and unable to stay ahead of Twitter's bot detection system. 11:18.030 --> 11:22.490 Taiwan's victory over disinformation, though, could very well be illusory. 11:22.490 --> 11:35.230 With Han already trailing by 20 points 100 days before the election, and anti-Chinese sentiment running high following the Hong Kong protests, China's digital army may have simply counted its losses and refocused on higher priorities. 11:36.470 --> 11:50.650 Four months later, and halfway around the world, in the brick medieval town of Krakow, the archbishop, whose predecessors include John Paul II, delivered a homily marking the 75th anniversary of the Warsaw uprising. 11:51.210 --> 11:58.650 Quote, we also know that our land is thankfully not affected by the red plague, he intoned, referring to communist rule. 11:58.870 --> 12:03.990 But that does not mean there is no one that wants to control our souls, our hearts, and our minds. 12:03.990 --> 12:09.150 This new plague is not Marxist-Bolshevik, but born out of the same sphere of neo-Marxism. 12:09.150 --> 12:11.490 Not red, but rainbow. 12:12.670 --> 12:30.390 Both the content of the archbishop's homily, the supposed threat of social liberalism, and the symbolism commemorating Poland's fight against fascism, foreshadowed the political axes in the country's 2020 election, one that inflamed internal intentions to a level not seen since the fall of communism. 12:30.390 --> 12:40.290 With both sides staking out staunchly anti-Russian positions, Moscow launched a massive campaign to engender outrage from each side against each other. 12:40.510 --> 12:47.270 In thousands of stories, Russian media warned Poles of the coming end of traditional values, or the rise of fascism. 12:47.270 --> 12:58.770 The election proved a case study in information operations towards destructive as opposed to constructive ends, not supporting a party, but stirring unrest throughout the country. 12:58.770 --> 13:13.790 The response of the ruling Law and Justice Party, PIS, dousing dissent and muzzling independent media, reveals how combating disinformation, like combating terrorism a decade before, can be a pretext to support authoritarian goals. 13:15.370 --> 13:25.110 PIS began in 2001 as a standard center-right party allied with Christian Democrats in the EU and won the presidency for the first time in 2005. 13:25.150 --> 13:42.690 But disaster struck in 2010 when much of PIS leadership died in a plane crash on its way to a memorial service in Smolensk, Russia, and the party's surviving leaders afterwards adopted an increasingly conspiratorial and nationalistic tone. 13:42.750 --> 13:55.190 Though vehemently anti-Russian, PIS's strident defense of traditionalism fit perfectly with Moscow's new self-portrayal as a bulwark against the EU and its, quote, homosexual propaganda. 13:55.190 --> 14:04.690 With Russian outlets dominating YouTube and Russian bots dominating Twitter and Facebook, similar far-right populist movements gained traction throughout Europe. 14:05.290 --> 14:16.090 In this wave, PIS leader Andrzej Duda captured the presidency in 2015, beating the center-left Civic Platform, or PO, coalition. 14:17.130 --> 14:23.970 Duda's first term in office was marked by a series of moves to bring independent institutions under the rule of PIS. 14:24.250 --> 14:34.350 The newly PIS-dominated legislature refused to seat duly appointed judges from the previous administration, instead filling the highest courts with partisan loyalists. 14:34.770 --> 14:50.190 Claiming threats of foreign influence, Duda ousted the head of the state broadcaster, Televizja Polska, and editors of public media organizations, such as Gazeta Wyborcza and Polityka, in favor of PIS loyalists. 14:50.190 --> 15:01.170 A bipartisan report showing that the Smolensk disaster was a result of pilot error was discarded, and conspiracies about foreign agents' involvement became state canon. 15:01.790 --> 15:11.910 As Duda and PIS increasingly sought to merge party and state, the center-left PO began to portray the PIS as threatening to establish an authoritarian regime. 15:12.070 --> 15:23.550 PIS's ultra-nationalistic language lent itself to charges of fascism, as did new laws curbing free speech, such as one criminalizing any implication of Polish involvement in the Holocaust. 15:23.890 --> 15:42.190 Following the ousting of a pro-Russian president in Ukraine in 2014, Russia began a massive multi-year, multi-language campaign to portray the NATO-friendly nationalists in the old eastern bloc as fascists and heirs to those who fought alongside Nazis against the Soviet Union. 15:42.270 --> 15:52.370 Nearly 60% of all instances of disinformation from Russia in Polish portrayed Duda's PIS party as fascist or fascist sympathizers. 15:53.610 --> 16:05.890 In February 2019, PO's rising star, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, signed a bill that would include same-sex education in school curriculums. 16:05.890 --> 16:11.370 With a dominant grasp on state media, PIS whipped up homophobic hysteria. 16:11.370 --> 16:19.450 The next month, a small town in the country's conservative southeast declared itself a, quote, LGBT ideology free zone. 16:19.450 --> 16:25.850 By August, 30 towns and four of Poland's 16 provinces declared the same. 16:25.850 --> 16:32.330 The backdrop made the 2019 parliamentary election among the most divisive in Polish history. 16:32.330 --> 16:42.270 With both the PO and PIS taking strident anti-Russian stances, Moscow turned towards inflaming sentiment on both sides. 16:42.270 --> 16:53.170 Sputnik Poland published 399 pieces supportive of the LGBT free zones and 265 pieces accusing the government of cozying up with fascists. 16:53.290 --> 17:10.970 Journalist Martin Ray uncovered dozens of links between the Kremlin and nationalists on the rightmost edges of PIS' coalition, while a report from the Oxford Institute on Computational Propaganda confirmed that bots were acting to further polarize the electorate. 17:10.970 --> 17:19.610 But with near total control over state media, PIS was able to expand its popular vote majority in the parliamentary elections. 17:19.970 --> 17:33.800 With the success of the 2019 Rainbow Plague campaign, PIS doubled down in the 2020 presidential elections, which pitted Duda against Warsaw mayor and PO candidate Trzaskowski. 17:33.800 --> 17:39.900 Trzaskowski sought to make the election a choice between democracy and authoritarianism. 17:39.900 --> 17:45.400 Duda aimed to cast the vote as one between foreign imported gay rights and Polish tradition. 17:45.480 --> 18:02.020 The election was characterized by widespread disinformation, the most prominent case coming when Russia hacked the Polish War Studies Academy website on April 23rd, allowing the hackers to publish forged letters by a Polish general calling for soldiers to fight, 18:02.020 --> 18:03.660 quote, the American occupation. 18:04.360 --> 18:12.600 Over 57 public Facebook groups reposted links to the letters, and average Facebook users followed suit in proliferating false stories. 18:13.560 --> 18:14.980 Like Russia's I.O. 18:14.980 --> 18:22.840 campaigns overall in Poland, the purpose was not to support any one candidate, but to create a sense of chaos and imminent violence. 18:22.840 --> 18:30.640 Other posts parroted Polish political leaflets, warning of scandals and poverty if Trzaskowski was elected over Duda. 18:30.640 --> 18:38.000 Other content claimed LGBT activists set Polish flags on fire, associating the anarchic behavior with Trzaskowski. 18:38.720 --> 18:46.060 On the other side, posts mentioning Duda characterized the current European environment under his leadership as a chaotic storm. 18:46.320 --> 18:52.800 Duda was also accused of brutalizing public life of Poles, a dry run for a fascist takeover. 18:53.540 --> 19:03.280 In the two weeks leading up to the second round of the presidential election, Polish language media from Russian outlets saw a large spike in incendiary terms. 19:03.400 --> 19:19.980 References to fascism, excluding references to Russia's Victory Day parade, which was held during this period, saw a 20% spike with an average sentiment of negative 0.76, and audiences responded similarly negative with negative 0.52. 19:20.000 --> 19:31.680 References to LGBT and related key terms increased by 11% in the same period, with an average sentiment expressed of negative 0.22, and audience response of negative 0.17. 19:31.680 --> 19:44.260 Russian outlets portrayed both candidates, Duda, negative 0.17, Trzaskowski, negative 0.15, and both coalitions, PIS, negative 0.26, PO, negative 0.21 in negative terms. 19:46.670 --> 19:58.550 On July 12th, 2020, voters in Poland re-elected Andrzej Duda for a second presidential term with 51% of the vote to Rafał Trzaskowski's 49%. 19:58.550 --> 20:08.630 Maciej Kieślowski, a professor at the Central European University, called the election, quote, a death blow to Poland's liberal democracy. 20:08.890 --> 20:25.470 With anti-Russian sentiment high throughout Poland, especially as Moscow began a campaign to blame the Second World War, and probably on Poland, Russia instead turned to destructive information operations, amplifying divisive voices, sowing distrust among the population, 20:25.470 --> 20:27.650 and undermining institutions. 20:27.810 --> 20:36.530 Though Russia plays large in Duda's conspiracies, Duda was happy to oblige, parroting Russian talking points and tactics on the EU and gay rights. 20:36.530 --> 20:39.690 Even among anti-Russian audiences, Russian I.O. 20:39.690 --> 20:42.190 was able to further Russian narratives. 20:42.370 --> 20:56.490 Despite Duda's own dalliances with disinformation, he was able to deploy fear of disinformation to win closer NATO support and to silence the Senate home, much as autocrats had done with the fight against terrorism throughout the early 2000s. 20:57.210 --> 20:59.450 As we approach the 2020 U.S. 20:59.450 --> 21:05.050 presidential election, Russia and China command dominant positions on social media. 21:05.670 --> 21:20.310 The top YouTube publisher is the Kremlin, which owns the platform's most-watched news network, even in English, and seven of the nine most-followed news pages on Facebook, all of them in English, belong to the Communist Party of China. 21:20.790 --> 21:33.890 In Taiwan, we saw how the Communist Party wove itself into the workings of an opposition party, but facing massive public backlash and the growing unpopularity of the opposition, retreated as the presidential election approached. 21:34.150 --> 21:44.770 Efforts to stem disinformation notched up significant victories through partnerships with social media companies, but legislation failed to win bipartisan support and thus shake off the appearance of censorship. 21:45.490 --> 21:52.210 In Poland, we saw how Russia adapted to an environment without support on either side by amplifying dissent. 21:52.230 --> 22:03.350 Fellow travelers against gay rights and four wild conspiracies helped to ensure civil strife, anti-EU sentiment, and strain all Western European alliances in Russia's near abroad. 22:03.930 --> 22:18.290 Successful information warfare is adaptable, and with so much social media power and advanced targeting techniques, anti-democratic forces can easily toggle between constructive campaigns to support a party and destructive campaigns to sow chaos. 22:18.290 --> 22:28.810 Only through coordination between apolitical institutions and the social media platforms, we find true progress against information warfare while maintaining our democratic values.