The 2003 predictions, calibrated against the 2002 lessons.
Threat-side
1. Auto-propagating worm of significant scale. 70%. (Lower than 2002.)
2. SMB or RPC-based worm. 70%.
3. SQL-database-targeted worm. 55%.
4. Mass-mailing worms continue. 90%.
5. Significant DDoS, named target. 60%.
6. P2P-architecture worm beyond Slapper. 65%.
Defensive-side
7. Windows Server 2003 ships with substantially improved defaults. 80%.
8. IIS 6 ships with restrictive defaults. 80%.
9. Two-factor authentication progress at major UK banks. 55%.
10. Honeynet Project produces second major paper. 80%.
11. Snort 2.0 ships. 70%.
12. Linux 2.6 ships or near-ships. 60%.
Structural
13. Major data-breach incident with regulatory action. 65%.
14. Spam volume continues growing. 95%.
15. Phishing scale continues growing. 90%.
16. Wireless attack tools continue maturing. 80%.
Personal
17. Six conferences. 75%.
18. Two talks. 70%.
19. Notebook continues weekly. 95%.
20. Genuinely-difficult piece. 60%.
More in the end-of-year post next week.